Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95781 3494 35 130 1 0 0 0
OW 0 144 15 89 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 14 213 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 123 427 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 858 1925 296 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 2855 2527 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95785 3452 25 119 0 0 0 0
OW 0 150 9 107 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 21 182 94 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 141 299 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 804 1431 426 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 1398 4531 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96098 3319 21 64 1 0 0 0
OW 0 128 19 157 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 14 310 89 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 83 593 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 494 650 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 1949 4685 104
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95908 3621 20 71 4 0 0 0
OW 0 154 16 137 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 12 226 144 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 110 341 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 372 418 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 336 1766 4486 855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95908 3646 25 126 15 0 0 0
OW 0 132 10 97 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 13 235 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 86 386 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 361 398 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 295 1770 4466 855

Date: 2022-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96249 3514 12 75 18 0 0 0
OW 0 205 10 87 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 138 9 93 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 14 146 197 8 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 86 412 101 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 447 5152 1832 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96249 3503 15 75 32 0 0 0
OW 0 216 6 93 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 133 9 99 191 1 0 0
ODI 0 40 14 138 161 19 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 78 453 96 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 400 5145 1829 0

Date: 2022-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96580 3588 12 46 5 0 0 0
OW 0 164 25 142 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 31 11 347 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 4 163 235 3 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 32 550 428 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 122 2091 4440 11
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96580 3291 11 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 229 7 107 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 155 10 173 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 80 9 170 85 10 0 0
CDI 0 34 15 202 326 137 0 0
VCDI 0 4 1 33 487 2375 4445 11

Date: 2022-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96111 3887 14 143 20 0 0 0
OW 0 118 8 120 89 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 6 76 230 1 0 0
ODI 0 22 5 36 245 49 0 0
CDI 0 11 5 50 237 508 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1158 5663 46
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96111 3558 9 113 4 0 0 0
OW 0 219 8 98 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 158 4 59 181 3 0 0
ODI 0 87 1 39 158 42 0 0
CDI 0 64 13 83 301 194 73 0
VCDI 0 8 3 33 110 1477 5769 46

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95772 4136 16 54 16 0 0 0
OW 0 184 16 119 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 4 92 183 0 0 0
ODI 0 22 6 50 244 25 0 0
CDI 0 7 5 59 342 289 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 23 1415 5590 188
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95772 3877 12 36 8 0 0 0
OW 0 222 14 82 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 4 86 136 0 0 0
ODI 0 88 4 47 161 35 0 0
CDI 0 59 9 81 355 171 92 0
VCDI 0 5 4 45 156 1523 5620 188


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