Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125141 19367 110 370 40 1 0 0
OW 0 1658 141 529 112 0 0 0
VODI 0 423 133 1775 630 24 0 0
ODI 0 11 10 800 3056 636 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 2058 11220 831 0
VCDI 0 2 1 8 38 6694 9775 1439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125655 18159 97 349 40 2 0 0
OW 5 1865 86 607 164 11 0 0
VODI 0 604 155 1546 763 119 0 0
ODI 0 15 16 743 1885 753 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 1716 9794 2015 0
VCDI 0 2 1 6 56 4352 13571 1874
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123730 20482 145 483 103 1 0 0
OW 0 1124 143 804 164 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 71 1698 931 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 213 2349 315 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 940 6748 1602 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 136 5099 17512 2093
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123535 19765 138 528 167 3 0 0
OW 0 1677 104 761 175 0 0 0
VODI 0 260 78 1431 1083 65 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 320 1692 428 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 957 4262 1043 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 381 4350 19220 4588
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123535 20134 146 634 207 3 0 0
OW 0 1349 104 648 181 4 0 0
VODI 0 213 70 1409 909 82 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 348 1737 447 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 1057 3999 1155 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 364 4573 19105 4588

Date: 2022-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123678 17894 134 745 165 2 0 0
OW 0 2233 94 731 480 3 0 0
VODI 0 522 76 1051 1099 156 0 0
ODI 0 47 20 268 1443 649 3 0
CDI 0 4 2 115 1006 2537 539 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 511 11990 15894 2948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123678 18447 155 830 271 0 0 0
OW 0 1632 73 709 395 7 0 0
VODI 0 550 75 915 1095 119 0 0
ODI 0 62 18 332 1319 642 7 0
CDI 0 9 5 120 1161 2281 578 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 463 12288 15851 2948

Date: 2022-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123593 18981 160 593 100 0 0 0
OW 0 961 131 919 195 2 0 0
VODI 0 143 54 1203 961 23 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 223 1979 237 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 32 963 3828 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 138 8965 21396 1091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123593 17090 133 702 259 22 0 0
OW 0 1957 91 758 489 57 0 0
VODI 0 889 87 850 936 184 0 0
ODI 0 116 22 382 1204 707 23 0
CDI 0 40 16 245 921 1909 445 0
VCDI 0 4 1 37 527 10176 21085 1091

Date: 2022-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121924 19310 161 655 227 142 0 0
OW 0 1138 121 851 374 168 0 0
VODI 0 139 46 706 1304 226 0 0
ODI 0 24 5 151 1280 672 3 0
CDI 0 11 5 62 789 2655 843 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 68 9054 21292 2640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121924 17298 132 627 318 274 0 0
OW 0 1772 55 492 676 223 6 0
VODI 0 1330 114 786 918 439 56 0
ODI 0 150 21 348 1085 651 157 0
CDI 0 64 13 139 860 1740 710 0
VCDI 0 8 3 35 185 9590 21209 2640

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120794 19447 140 507 220 29 0 0
OW 0 1612 118 779 552 49 0 0
VODI 0 259 73 783 1287 187 0 0
ODI 0 31 8 258 1263 528 1 0
CDI 0 7 5 79 1127 2177 446 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 136 8721 24139 1283
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120784 17746 127 562 586 126 0 0
OW 10 1817 51 301 550 123 7 0
VODI 0 1434 106 749 1002 677 28 0
ODI 0 290 46 543 849 552 125 0
CDI 0 64 10 209 1172 1152 602 0
VCDI 0 5 4 45 426 9061 23824 1283


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