Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18239 8129 89 384 48 5 0 0
OW 0 773 40 349 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 224 43 905 431 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 487 922 637 12 0
CDI 0 2 1 41 1772 1744 1008 0
VCDI 0 0 1 3 67 4081 4642 757
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18512 7900 77 324 39 0 0 0
OW 0 986 49 272 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 265 47 909 356 7 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 452 1258 106 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 61 1776 2239 618 0
VCDI 0 0 2 7 34 4152 4192 1213
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18041 9021 94 271 48 3 0 0
OW 0 380 62 328 85 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 18 862 432 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 160 2103 257 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 8 486 2455 403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 30 3535 6379 330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18465 8428 59 222 26 1 0 0
OW 0 665 51 241 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 42 897 275 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 240 1299 422 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 493 2296 486 0
VCDI 0 2 2 7 18 3165 7233 662
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18465 8466 69 266 45 1 0 0
OW 0 643 48 257 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 35 750 292 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 327 1103 317 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 657 2343 421 0
VCDI 0 2 2 7 20 3220 7298 662

Date: 2022-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18897 7666 60 212 49 1 0 0
OW 3 899 36 208 78 4 0 0
VODI 0 293 58 777 267 56 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 376 735 340 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 441 2010 465 0
VCDI 0 2 1 7 16 2260 7930 1708
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18892 7572 69 275 89 1 0 0
OW 8 945 27 149 70 8 0 0
VODI 0 344 58 676 228 64 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 473 645 295 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 538 1914 438 0
VCDI 0 2 1 7 16 2389 7957 1708

Date: 2022-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18371 8487 83 217 32 2 0 0
OW 0 471 62 302 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 29 906 294 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 76 933 111 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 163 1907 40 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 28 1980 9485 1751
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18369 7732 83 262 150 6 0 0
OW 2 862 33 168 97 44 0 0
VODI 0 396 49 723 271 107 0 0
ODI 0 8 9 348 495 366 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 485 1537 486 0
VCDI 0 0 1 4 28 1953 9030 1751

Date: 2022-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18092 8196 90 423 122 4 0 0
OW 0 511 40 354 149 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 17 666 547 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 104 801 115 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 438 1392 135 0
VCDI 0 0 1 6 64 1306 9420 2794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18092 7505 90 415 227 6 0 0
OW 0 833 18 289 167 37 0 0
VODI 0 387 30 514 482 112 10 0
ODI 0 35 9 312 619 148 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 571 1425 392 0
VCDI 0 0 1 5 55 1115 9110 2794

Date: 2022-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18421 7153 71 353 152 4 0 0
OW 0 907 38 362 149 2 0 0
VODI 0 101 31 740 386 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 720 158 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 1204 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 20 2034 8691 3540
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18421 6917 73 416 312 7 0 0
OW 0 851 28 287 139 71 0 0
VODI 0 378 31 581 313 185 8 0
ODI 0 15 8 311 508 245 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 452 1320 471 2
VCDI 0 0 0 6 12 1632 8254 3538


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