Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16596 8354 51 140 23 1 0 0
OW 3 918 37 216 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 734 81 1065 129 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 861 1823 445 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 30 1363 2375 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 3725 4550 1856
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16855 8126 62 250 28 0 0 0
OW 1 1059 32 293 9 2 0 0
VODI 0 833 67 700 197 39 0 0
ODI 0 16 7 1058 1455 311 3 0
CDI 0 1 2 101 1600 2135 310 18
VCDI 0 0 0 2 284 4154 4858 998
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18503 7879 88 436 57 0 0 0
OW 0 539 41 294 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 151 45 1225 257 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 493 1846 79 3 0
CDI 0 1 2 13 1192 2387 598 12
VCDI 0 0 0 1 78 3983 4415 1203
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18294 7899 95 523 64 2 0 0
OW 0 677 38 299 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 198 48 1039 328 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 486 1109 543 68 0
CDI 0 2 1 23 1582 1722 1154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 4259 4118 1157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18294 8119 97 533 56 2 0 0
OW 0 475 39 303 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 180 45 956 339 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 549 1185 542 72 0
CDI 0 2 1 29 1506 1747 1089 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 4233 4179 1157

Date: 2022-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18254 8230 84 250 61 5 0 0
OW 0 929 43 282 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 241 56 1035 268 12 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 529 921 468 19 0
CDI 0 1 1 46 1755 1852 969 0
VCDI 0 0 1 3 52 3987 4299 1200
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18254 8502 90 270 50 5 0 0
OW 0 645 36 281 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 255 59 969 286 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 556 959 463 24 0
CDI 0 1 2 69 1701 1775 925 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 4060 4338 1200

Date: 2022-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18731 8389 74 231 30 3 0 0
OW 0 493 71 352 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 25 1240 122 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 182 2417 80 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 10 677 2517 363 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 27 3459 6050 249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18731 7927 71 297 31 3 0 0
OW 0 746 42 248 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 278 57 956 273 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 478 1217 71 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 1711 1999 386 0
VCDI 0 1 2 6 38 3986 6027 249

Date: 2022-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18376 8574 68 250 52 2 0 0
OW 0 484 63 317 87 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 31 819 396 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 215 1451 598 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 5 398 2237 644 0
VCDI 0 1 1 6 32 3323 6910 447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18376 8050 77 275 23 2 0 0
OW 0 749 34 287 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 304 50 743 473 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 296 1072 211 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 803 1982 246 0
VCDI 0 2 2 8 33 3997 7308 447

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18664 8058 66 236 39 1 0 0
OW 0 767 48 215 76 0 0 0
VODI 0 174 49 777 334 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 285 1122 265 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 465 2345 359 0
VCDI 0 2 1 8 21 2776 7248 1439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18544 7261 72 193 13 1 0 0
OW 120 1089 29 156 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 639 53 700 248 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 10 462 953 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 808 1656 41 0
VCDI 0 2 1 8 25 3708 7566 1439


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