Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-09-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15151 7491 51 128 4 0 0 0
OW 0 1258 56 263 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 522 74 1786 174 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 464 2083 116 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 11 1825 3944 510 0
VCDI 0 2 0 5 25 1240 5815 2863
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15265 7501 50 155 13 0 0 0
OW 7 1334 43 268 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 827 90 1419 110 11 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 748 1802 114 32 0
CDI 0 3 0 27 2254 3581 366 15
VCDI 0 1 0 1 24 1439 5542 2816
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15719 8911 55 107 16 0 0 0
OW 0 778 70 275 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 380 66 1659 137 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 437 2797 156 26 0
CDI 0 1 2 8 798 3008 593 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 3061 4577 2196
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15597 9259 56 117 32 1 0 0
OW 5 861 48 214 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 610 87 1279 99 21 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 826 2152 258 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 25 1217 2434 414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 3483 4509 2212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15589 9463 63 153 32 1 0 0
OW 13 746 47 188 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 524 81 1396 168 26 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 711 2226 254 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 13 1072 2455 307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 3461 4616 2212

Date: 2022-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16477 8422 73 227 33 1 0 0
OW 0 993 36 226 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 823 83 860 154 32 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 1048 1470 483 8 0
CDI 0 1 2 70 1435 2069 595 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 3862 4888 1407
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16477 8592 77 270 33 1 0 0
OW 0 959 31 208 20 4 0 0
VODI 0 689 86 1046 161 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 849 1553 344 8 0
CDI 0 1 2 58 1296 2102 513 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 113 3966 4970 1407

Date: 2022-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18000 8555 65 175 33 2 0 0
OW 0 643 61 295 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 99 36 1496 120 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 389 1998 126 3 0
CDI 0 2 1 12 916 2967 219 7
VCDI 0 0 0 1 108 3764 4607 1164
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17977 7387 57 194 34 3 0 0
OW 23 1013 25 205 20 12 0 0
VODI 0 856 55 724 151 39 0 0
ODI 0 41 25 1105 1246 148 3 0
CDI 0 2 1 139 1464 1990 241 28
VCDI 0 0 0 1 261 4668 4585 1143

Date: 2022-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18540 7681 99 513 74 0 0 0
OW 0 604 33 295 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 181 47 1030 342 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 522 1336 465 9 0
CDI 0 1 2 14 1206 2077 1082 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 16 4249 4081 1239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18529 6805 70 358 36 4 0 0
OW 11 832 29 263 67 24 0 0
VODI 0 714 52 604 279 39 13 0
ODI 0 113 27 905 1196 235 26 0
CDI 0 3 3 246 1451 1798 706 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 4743 4427 1234

Date: 2022-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18239 8129 89 384 48 5 0 0
OW 0 773 40 349 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 224 43 905 431 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 487 922 637 12 0
CDI 0 2 1 41 1772 1744 1008 0
VCDI 0 0 1 3 67 4081 4642 757
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18228 7110 58 241 53 7 0 0
OW 11 920 31 275 35 24 0 0
VODI 0 818 36 475 248 32 18 0
ODI 0 255 40 782 961 299 35 0
CDI 0 25 11 396 1793 1379 547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 157 4747 5062 757


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