Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 119233 19002 83 288 15 0 0 0 OW 0 2218 166 583 19 0 0 0 VODI 0 891 193 4016 781 3 0 0 ODI 0 3 0 1259 7024 297 2 0 CDI 0 2 0 59 7500 8392 798 0 VCDI 0 2 0 5 55 3743 7539 2877	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 120615 17766 76 296 26 0 0 0 OW 7 2466 129 503 26 0 0 0 VODI 0 1308 234 3565 680 12 0 0 ODI 0 6 8 1625 6521 414 32 0 CDI 0 3 0 68 7234 8690 487 15 VCDI 0 1 0 1 24 4044 7320 2846	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 121254 19918 96 265 21 0 0 0 OW 0 1635 203 633 25 0 0 0 VODI 0 495 138 3773 632 5 0 0 ODI 0 1 2 846 10276 654 26 0 CDI 0 1 2 45 2758 9027 601 9 VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 5977 5519 2196	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 121793 19696 93 227 50 1 0 0 OW 5 1786 144 554 44 0 0 0 VODI 0 843 182 2876 980 70 0 0 ODI 0 34 9 1214 7817 2108 133 0 CDI 0 1 2 57 3026 8302 913 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 6053 5782 2212	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 121785 19967 93 271 53 1 0 0 OW 13 1569 165 593 36 0 0 0 VODI 0 781 158 2861 1043 89 0 0 ODI 0 42 12 1158 7785 2075 129 0 CDI 0 1 2 45 2996 8204 686 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 6165 6013 2212

Date: 2022-09-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 122977 18350 104 346 34 1 0 0 OW 0 2075 135 513 25 0 0 0 VODI 0 1157 192 2788 576 32 0 0 ODI 0 23 14 1739 7342 1333 8 0 CDI 0 1 2 269 4260 7146 1411 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 6263 6424 1407	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 122977 18637 105 385 34 1 0 0 OW 0 1853 133 577 37 4 0 0 VODI 0 1090 188 2786 648 30 0 0 ODI 0 25 19 1619 7090 1259 17 0 CDI 0 1 2 288 4382 7002 1261 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 147 6479 6565 1407

Date: 2022-09-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 123864 19715 120 301 53 2 0 0 OW 0 1363 227 839 27 0 0 0 VODI 0 163 69 3680 558 1 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 772 8701 686 3 0 CDI 0 2 1 41 3165 8950 569 7 VCDI 0 0 0 1 139 5539 6326 1164	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 123841 17759 95 334 80 3 0 0 OW 23 1974 114 520 60 12 0 0 VODI 0 1400 158 2296 574 39 0 0 ODI 0 108 49 2046 5969 968 3 0 CDI 0 2 1 437 5378 6531 489 28 VCDI 0 0 0 1 582 7625 6406 1143

Date: 2022-09-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 124057 19303 160 694 82 0 0 0 OW 0 1346 165 834 100 0 0 0 VODI 0 357 117 2595 856 52 0 0 ODI 0 6 1 1185 6272 1394 9 0 CDI 0 1 2 123 3622 8739 1289 0 VCDI 0 0 0 2 156 7181 5109 1239	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 124046 17460 112 540 50 4 0 0 OW 11 1804 90 580 106 24 0 0 VODI 0 1476 177 1754 644 47 13 0 ODI 0 270 63 1925 4458 1341 26 0 CDI 0 3 3 600 5326 6446 806 5 VCDI 0 0 0 34 504 9504 5562 1234

Date: 2022-09-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 123915 19466 143 557 54 5 0 0 OW 0 1753 139 879 21 0 0 0 VODI 0 491 119 2298 908 21 0 0 ODI 0 6 8 1044 5092 1538 12 0 CDI 0 2 1 184 3973 9176 1048 0 VCDI 0 0 1 9 216 7743 5469 757	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 123904 17627 114 417 71 7 0 0 OW 11 1837 81 590 73 24 0 0 VODI 0 1824 120 1484 587 32 18 0 ODI 0 405 85 1728 3825 1222 35 0 CDI 0 25 11 709 4978 6875 587 0 VCDI 0 0 0 43 730 10323 5889 757

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