Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-08-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13918 5891 68 275 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1139 54 363 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 546 78 2231 414 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 10 943 2729 751 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 4 1889 3870 2239 120
VCDI 0 1 1 0 29 305 3089 4836
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13908 6074 67 246 32 0 0 0
OW 0 1286 71 407 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 585 89 2134 282 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 9 829 2500 674 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 25 1608 4383 2272 0
VCDI 0 3 1 12 59 376 3954 3915
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13912 7890 64 212 10 0 0 0
OW 3 932 78 315 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 531 75 1968 398 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 217 2223 554 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 9 1041 4592 935 0
VCDI 0 2 1 2 36 498 5029 4326
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14367 8103 43 168 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1113 62 245 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 560 73 1788 277 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 340 2168 154 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 13 1732 4030 608 0
VCDI 0 3 0 6 43 1940 5080 2939
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14367 8217 43 179 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1062 80 300 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 497 55 1673 259 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 389 2155 146 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 13 1766 4089 634 0
VCDI 0 1 0 6 40 1889 5054 2939

Date: 2022-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15223 7500 47 129 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1321 59 266 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 559 70 1749 95 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 569 2003 119 16 0
CDI 0 2 0 8 1883 3774 581 3
VCDI 0 2 0 4 19 1028 6189 2632
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15223 7764 50 136 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1088 56 277 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 528 70 1673 97 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 626 1902 141 16 0
CDI 0 4 0 9 1986 3747 610 2
VCDI 0 0 0 4 18 1029 6160 2633

Date: 2022-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15857 8341 58 150 20 0 0 0
OW 0 823 83 370 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 299 45 1865 156 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 244 3151 104 17 0
CDI 0 2 1 6 823 3320 327 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 2741 4614 2422
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15847 7398 56 166 20 0 0 0
OW 10 1059 28 237 4 2 0 0
VODI 0 979 91 1116 84 20 3 0
ODI 0 27 11 1014 1542 94 62 0
CDI 0 2 1 101 2497 3185 447 27
VCDI 0 0 0 1 18 2866 4446 2405

Date: 2022-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15559 9244 49 95 16 0 0 0
OW 9 776 60 285 5 0 0 0
VODI 1 446 72 1490 134 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 548 2532 249 7 0
CDI 0 1 2 19 998 2881 343 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 3445 4916 1648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15525 8105 53 147 16 0 0 0
OW 41 1050 18 134 8 9 0 0
VODI 3 1184 82 811 115 41 5 0
ODI 0 127 28 1048 1286 122 52 0
CDI 0 1 2 294 2244 2932 410 8
VCDI 0 0 0 3 39 3480 4799 1644

Date: 2022-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16596 8354 51 140 23 1 0 0
OW 3 918 37 216 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 734 81 1065 129 12 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 861 1823 445 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 30 1363 2375 389 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 3725 4550 1856
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16549 7227 49 173 27 1 0 0
OW 50 911 15 163 24 14 0 0
VODI 0 1507 58 499 113 59 0 0
ODI 0 356 45 987 830 250 2 0
CDI 0 7 5 490 2267 2286 451 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 161 3948 4486 1831


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