Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-08-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9972 8163 64 296 27 0 0 0
OW 0 543 76 592 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 282 40 1273 466 1 0 0
ODI 0 46 12 519 2518 85 0 0
CDI 0 22 5 107 3459 6258 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 22 2793 5589 2304
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11639 6617 85 376 30 0 0 0
OW 0 600 63 633 118 0 0 0
VODI 0 254 35 1113 638 9 0 0
ODI 0 116 16 452 2726 16 0 0
CDI 0 11 4 254 4387 5263 400 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 46 1875 5585 2500
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12864 5901 78 416 14 0 0 0
OW 9 596 45 543 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 225 30 1273 604 0 0 0
ODI 0 25 5 486 4709 135 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 2861 4516 908 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 28 529 4892 4090
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12677 6406 86 322 27 0 0 0
OW 6 754 57 459 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 264 46 1389 539 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 8 1045 3965 58 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 2447 5069 1011 0
VCDI 0 2 1 3 30 419 5365 3248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12675 6554 101 372 45 0 0 0
OW 8 567 46 466 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 303 40 1284 575 0 0 0
ODI 0 34 10 1087 3848 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 2510 5091 1122 0
VCDI 0 2 1 3 28 386 5254 3248

Date: 2022-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13200 6185 73 285 40 0 0 0
OW 7 831 50 447 61 0 0 0
VODI 0 432 56 1523 346 0 0 0
ODI 0 48 13 1534 2982 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 110 2476 5700 997 16
VCDI 0 4 0 2 76 974 4623 2712
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13198 6388 79 369 53 0 0 0
OW 9 661 50 408 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 405 47 1473 396 0 0 0
ODI 0 42 16 1499 2889 112 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 150 2524 5772 1095 14
VCDI 0 4 0 2 75 852 4525 2714

Date: 2022-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13065 6392 68 343 30 0 0 0
OW 1 944 47 349 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 318 65 2216 429 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 501 4527 169 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 2 1024 5596 1187 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 36 820 5375 2331
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13062 6520 72 434 76 0 0 0
OW 4 605 43 442 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 470 51 1239 757 2 0 0
ODI 0 59 14 1163 2802 255 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 132 2305 5537 1974 8
VCDI 0 0 0 6 64 791 4584 2323

Date: 2022-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12811 6912 54 311 31 0 0 0
OW 0 976 58 377 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 285 60 2195 530 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 582 3813 463 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 3 1411 4318 2129 139
VCDI 0 3 0 0 20 437 5045 2849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12811 6908 56 401 73 0 0 0
OW 0 646 47 482 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 556 58 1433 716 0 0 0
ODI 0 63 11 1066 2586 162 5 1
CDI 0 0 0 86 2395 4701 2848 201
VCDI 0 4 0 0 43 355 4321 2786

Date: 2022-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13918 5891 68 275 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1139 54 363 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 546 78 2231 414 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 10 943 2729 751 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 4 1889 3870 2239 120
VCDI 0 1 1 0 29 305 3089 4836
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13918 5868 71 419 38 0 0 0
OW 0 789 54 385 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 779 63 1349 757 6 0 0
ODI 0 159 22 1483 1430 526 45 0
CDI 0 0 1 180 2811 4188 2993 308
VCDI 0 1 1 0 58 206 2290 4648


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