Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-08-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109067 20984 193 901 38 0 0 0
OW 1 1084 160 1412 260 3 0 0
VODI 0 367 68 2205 1635 27 0 0
ODI 0 50 14 718 7179 1236 59 0
CDI 0 22 5 108 6575 17469 2661 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 22 3437 6677 2407
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111478 19073 191 937 64 0 0 0
OW 1 1246 141 1343 401 0 0 0
VODI 0 415 73 1881 1985 39 0 0
ODI 0 117 21 816 7147 1490 68 0
CDI 0 11 4 264 7068 17021 2096 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 46 2445 6637 2524
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113795 18098 185 741 46 0 0 0
OW 9 1060 157 1097 135 0 0 0
VODI 0 276 71 2284 1291 3 0 0
ODI 0 25 5 748 10266 1296 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 4483 16341 3288 0
VCDI 0 2 2 1 28 1092 6109 4090
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114362 18143 181 649 34 0 0 0
OW 6 1334 146 986 157 0 0 0
VODI 0 346 95 2522 1342 4 0 0
ODI 0 34 9 1444 9545 1104 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 4511 15718 3123 0
VCDI 0 2 1 3 45 1030 6855 3249
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114360 18466 205 794 59 0 0 0
OW 8 975 133 941 170 0 0 0
VODI 0 382 82 2373 1412 11 0 0
ODI 0 34 11 1487 9305 1167 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 74 4660 15788 3223 0
VCDI 0 2 1 3 28 890 6753 3249

Date: 2022-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116979 16128 140 531 57 0 0 0
OW 69 1471 122 839 191 0 0 0
VODI 0 573 110 2607 1462 26 0 0
ODI 0 53 18 1872 8204 1674 3 0
CDI 0 0 1 124 4312 14468 4711 28
VCDI 0 4 0 2 76 1031 6168 2994
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117008 16499 150 679 95 0 0 0
OW 40 1148 125 748 176 0 0 0
VODI 0 531 94 2534 1472 26 0 0
ODI 0 47 21 1848 8061 1625 16 0
CDI 0 0 1 164 4423 14653 4875 26
VCDI 0 4 0 2 75 895 5991 2996

Date: 2022-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117164 16613 141 540 55 0 0 0
OW 1 1441 143 778 60 0 0 0
VODI 0 387 97 3530 1037 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 768 11531 732 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 2 2811 13591 2752 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 36 970 9313 2547
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117161 16579 131 723 152 0 0 0
OW 4 1135 121 764 196 0 0 0
VODI 0 666 111 2381 2042 54 0 0
ODI 0 61 18 1601 7811 2043 69 0
CDI 0 0 1 148 5265 12279 6030 71
VCDI 0 0 0 6 64 919 5966 2476

Date: 2022-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115878 18424 134 492 66 0 0 0
OW 0 1439 149 863 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 397 95 3683 1336 2 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 969 8949 2705 5 0
CDI 0 1 0 24 2905 11983 4206 139
VCDI 0 3 0 0 20 975 8185 2920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115878 18196 122 588 141 0 0 0
OW 0 1243 119 880 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 760 122 2912 2019 118 0 0
ODI 0 66 18 1537 6808 2939 140 1
CDI 0 0 0 114 4236 12006 7191 207
VCDI 0 4 0 0 43 602 5065 2851

Date: 2022-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118755 15791 119 414 37 0 0 0
OW 0 1884 122 768 58 1 0 0
VODI 0 891 153 3764 1391 17 0 0
ODI 0 38 17 1492 7264 3268 24 0
CDI 0 0 1 57 3755 10256 4488 120
VCDI 0 1 1 0 50 1129 5982 4940
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118755 15444 117 673 91 0 0 0
OW 0 1526 112 708 165 0 0 0
VODI 0 1296 130 2657 2156 260 0 0
ODI 0 299 45 2139 5068 3502 285 0
CDI 0 39 8 318 5017 10668 7662 328
VCDI 0 1 1 0 58 241 2547 4732


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