Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-07-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6170 7551 128 1066 197 0 0 0
OW 0 493 78 608 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 169 22 1229 385 0 0 0
ODI 0 110 4 404 2163 361 2 0
CDI 0 5 0 64 3161 5619 708 46
VCDI 0 0 0 5 694 7281 6455 575
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6419 7819 141 1087 105 0 0 0
OW 0 460 55 639 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 182 29 1055 407 0 0 0
ODI 0 114 4 332 2324 153 0 0
CDI 0 39 0 112 3827 5468 998 76
VCDI 0 4 0 35 310 6772 5690 1138
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6957 8403 134 945 94 0 0 0
OW 0 398 75 512 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 29 1165 399 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 447 2940 131 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 31 2993 6671 838 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 84 3532 8002 955
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7101 8809 158 741 71 0 0 0
OW 0 334 68 589 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 24 950 504 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 429 2518 617 7 0
CDI 0 1 1 88 3595 4907 2158 6
VCDI 0 0 0 4 48 2648 5823 3533
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7101 8857 154 794 86 0 0 0
OW 0 285 80 479 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 47 16 962 500 1 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 469 2581 714 7 0
CDI 0 1 1 93 3546 4830 2172 6
VCDI 0 0 0 4 43 2627 5809 3533

Date: 2022-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7611 8706 138 624 66 0 0 0
OW 0 388 75 490 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 24 980 582 4 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 535 2380 468 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 127 2901 5247 2189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 100 2505 5628 3938
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7611 8768 143 659 71 0 0 0
OW 0 304 69 415 97 3 0 0
VODI 0 64 24 936 584 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 600 2455 572 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 143 2808 5236 2199 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 110 2411 5618 3938

Date: 2022-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7880 9146 142 421 31 0 0 0
OW 0 399 80 472 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 65 17 1558 389 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 356 3411 137 0 0
CDI 0 16 7 77 2442 6120 239 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 20 1737 6758 3910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7880 9017 140 484 39 0 0 0
OW 0 418 56 480 56 1 0 0
VODI 0 156 37 994 631 11 0 0
ODI 0 26 6 591 2388 292 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 227 3094 5652 782 9
VCDI 0 16 7 113 107 2038 6215 3901

Date: 2022-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9678 8038 80 303 38 0 0 0
OW 0 502 79 527 58 0 0 0
VODI 0 322 48 1070 677 0 0 0
ODI 0 29 6 330 2987 15 0 0
CDI 0 26 5 92 3420 5692 242 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 2124 5662 3793
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9678 7739 74 357 41 0 0 0
OW 0 612 56 354 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 336 51 831 781 4 0 0
ODI 0 166 23 363 2368 49 0 0
CDI 0 24 6 338 3769 5391 295 297
VCDI 0 40 8 83 143 2387 5609 3496

Date: 2022-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9972 8163 64 296 27 0 0 0
OW 0 543 76 592 80 0 0 0
VODI 0 282 40 1273 466 1 0 0
ODI 0 46 12 519 2518 85 0 0
CDI 0 22 5 107 3459 6258 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 22 2793 5589 2304
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9972 7812 54 284 30 0 0 0
OW 0 593 57 343 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 374 44 1061 554 0 0 0
ODI 0 172 21 622 1943 120 0 0
CDI 0 62 13 412 3908 5699 420 506
VCDI 0 43 8 69 94 3318 5417 1798


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