Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-07-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86695 9963 59 242 32 1 0 0
OW 2 421 49 239 80 1 0 0
VODI 0 109 29 533 310 2 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 223 905 133 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 118 846 3288 225 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 3354 1116 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88821 8180 40 229 25 1 0 0
OW 13 412 50 243 64 0 0 0
VODI 1 98 35 481 385 5 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 198 925 85 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 148 1314 3162 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 241 3455 397 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89145 8536 76 299 7 0 0 0
OW 1 168 41 381 40 1 0 0
VODI 0 15 6 460 414 2 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 152 1105 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 2483 2558 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 374 2491 145 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90599 7459 61 300 13 0 0 0
OW 0 214 32 340 80 1 0 0
VODI 0 27 10 307 494 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 141 917 156 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 2315 3575 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 1867 1 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90599 7491 64 332 22 0 0 0
OW 0 171 31 362 98 1 0 0
VODI 0 37 8 247 494 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 129 861 157 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 78 2351 3586 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 107 1860 1 0

Date: 2022-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91367 6848 72 350 17 0 0 0
OW 12 211 30 359 81 1 0 0
VODI 1 41 7 309 466 40 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 131 750 230 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 1452 4798 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 46 1306 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91362 6869 77 372 29 0 0 0
OW 15 176 24 384 82 1 0 0
VODI 3 51 8 246 503 42 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 133 667 227 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 110 1512 4757 72 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 1348 3 0

Date: 2022-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91547 6877 66 305 12 0 0 0
OW 9 151 34 305 35 1 0 0
VODI 0 11 3 522 346 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 132 926 120 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 984 5571 322 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 561 233 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91544 6847 74 410 38 0 0 0
OW 11 131 17 394 100 2 0 0
VODI 1 49 7 207 543 56 0 0
ODI 0 12 5 168 486 319 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 1114 4951 301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 929 254 0

Date: 2022-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91478 7126 45 260 10 0 0 0
OW 5 172 38 293 60 1 0 0
VODI 0 18 13 497 432 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 157 648 212 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 607 5674 617 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 269 422 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91472 7086 69 402 43 0 0 0
OW 11 121 11 340 112 1 0 0
VODI 0 69 9 206 500 87 0 0
ODI 0 40 5 160 360 363 12 0
CDI 0 0 2 139 731 5139 567 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 572 460 0

Date: 2022-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92380 6300 38 267 22 0 0 0
OW 4 199 32 350 50 1 0 0
VODI 0 22 14 554 354 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 159 611 171 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 667 5989 286 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 215 359 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92374 6252 54 463 54 0 0 0
OW 10 146 12 322 147 1 0 0
VODI 0 68 11 283 388 63 0 0
ODI 0 55 5 165 325 322 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 149 786 5646 162 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 348 483 0


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