Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-07-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3792 6520 127 782 176 19 0 0
OW 4 175 26 785 260 10 0 0
VODI 0 134 22 765 991 49 0 0
ODI 0 57 12 377 1368 148 0 0
CDI 0 140 13 466 4131 2894 39 0
VCDI 0 35 0 56 1413 17519 2518 43
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3879 6902 133 795 219 7 0 0
OW 3 223 37 902 300 5 0 0
VODI 0 125 19 841 1102 10 0 0
ODI 0 16 9 385 873 160 0 0
CDI 0 153 16 415 3752 3417 2 0
VCDI 0 1 0 5 1146 12683 7168 163
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4272 6946 123 776 212 0 0 0
OW 5 246 69 729 239 2 0 0
VODI 4 48 13 1198 957 8 0 0
ODI 2 89 16 480 1616 117 0 0
CDI 0 85 8 49 3204 4611 29 0
VCDI 0 8 0 23 771 11634 7277 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5154 6342 113 748 225 0 0 0
OW 3 479 71 828 194 0 0 0
VODI 5 214 29 1267 554 3 0 0
ODI 0 67 16 396 1387 180 0 0
CDI 45 126 5 123 3165 4575 310 0
VCDI 43 271 1 59 588 6852 8420 3008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5154 6347 111 745 234 0 0 0
OW 3 442 63 762 174 0 0 0
VODI 5 246 38 1318 580 8 0 0
ODI 0 74 17 420 1413 121 0 0
CDI 25 134 5 110 3047 4484 301 0
VCDI 63 256 1 66 665 6997 8429 3008

Date: 2022-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5279 6543 113 878 255 0 0 0
OW 2 337 61 987 306 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 28 1065 485 10 0 0
ODI 0 74 9 307 1255 252 0 0
CDI 0 147 6 128 2650 6250 437 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 937 9405 7112 476
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5279 6481 116 903 295 0 0 0
OW 2 364 49 938 233 0 0 0
VODI 0 83 35 1086 551 16 0 0
ODI 0 82 12 316 1220 231 0 0
CDI 0 145 5 112 2531 6427 458 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 1058 9243 7091 476

Date: 2022-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5233 7210 132 1077 179 0 0 0
OW 1 295 53 800 212 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 30 1452 366 5 0 0
ODI 0 119 4 226 2872 131 0 0
CDI 0 35 0 1 3517 5974 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 403 7667 7527 157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5233 6857 130 1308 268 0 0 0
OW 1 368 42 841 179 5 0 0
VODI 0 197 28 926 333 14 0 0
ODI 0 245 14 400 1286 174 14 0
CDI 0 103 5 81 4324 5217 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1159 8367 7527 157

Date: 2022-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5507 7600 142 1229 165 0 0 0
OW 1 399 66 732 93 2 0 0
VODI 0 137 19 1176 572 1 0 0
ODI 0 113 4 220 2535 278 0 0
CDI 0 21 0 7 3050 5527 846 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 703 5893 7244 1579
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5507 7127 136 1425 206 0 0 0
OW 1 494 45 537 103 4 0 0
VODI 0 304 35 819 278 23 0 0
ODI 0 237 15 447 1329 230 0 0
CDI 0 108 0 135 4053 4739 748 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 1149 6705 7342 1579

Date: 2022-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6170 7551 128 1066 197 0 0 0
OW 0 493 78 608 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 169 22 1229 385 0 0 0
ODI 0 110 4 404 2163 361 2 0
CDI 0 5 0 64 3161 5619 708 46
VCDI 0 0 0 5 694 7281 6455 575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6170 7094 137 1161 236 0 0 0
OW 0 465 34 284 109 0 0 0
VODI 0 389 41 760 258 26 1 0
ODI 0 278 18 733 961 287 14 0
CDI 0 102 2 429 4100 4917 593 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 1049 8031 6557 621


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