Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-07-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2696 5290 115 672 201 20 0 0
OW 8 559 37 713 258 22 0 0
VODI 0 136 30 982 723 57 0 0
ODI 0 22 10 328 1373 282 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 341 2837 1950 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 4682 15572 5379 388
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2708 5691 98 745 290 14 0 0
OW 6 476 39 961 287 45 0 0
VODI 0 118 30 686 667 187 0 0
ODI 0 56 9 357 1129 309 0 0
CDI 0 32 8 517 2919 2091 4 0
VCDI 0 1 0 81 3565 13465 8122 153
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3518 6035 112 629 200 11 0 0
OW 5 413 49 790 144 18 0 0
VODI 0 84 16 691 729 8 0 0
ODI 0 79 9 467 1855 145 0 0
CDI 0 49 6 443 3795 3053 2 0
VCDI 0 3 0 6 1461 16162 4767 112
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3516 6705 106 735 163 15 0 0
OW 4 172 36 794 215 8 0 0
VODI 0 107 17 794 792 45 0 0
ODI 0 29 3 369 1582 162 0 0
CDI 0 42 8 491 3875 3315 21 0
VCDI 0 116 2 58 1838 16660 3055 16
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3516 6734 114 798 169 18 0 0
OW 4 131 29 701 179 6 0 0
VODI 0 106 13 812 762 24 0 0
ODI 0 41 6 396 1593 189 0 0
CDI 0 43 8 477 3845 3299 21 0
VCDI 0 116 2 57 1917 16669 3055 16

Date: 2022-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3855 6731 121 746 178 7 0 0
OW 4 223 45 815 228 5 0 0
VODI 0 247 29 1078 813 15 0 0
ODI 0 122 12 438 912 154 0 0
CDI 0 142 16 447 3753 3291 20 0
VCDI 0 10 0 25 1302 16445 3536 101
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3855 6740 133 822 184 9 0 0
OW 4 184 33 702 164 2 0 0
VODI 0 217 28 1041 838 24 0 0
ODI 0 188 14 520 926 124 0 0
CDI 0 136 15 442 3696 3228 20 0
VCDI 0 10 0 22 1378 16530 3536 101

Date: 2022-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4194 6840 134 759 173 2 0 0
OW 3 234 46 609 161 2 0 0
VODI 0 53 26 1328 779 2 0 0
ODI 0 123 14 518 2023 137 0 0
CDI 0 74 3 30 3505 4191 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 741 12751 5883 520
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4194 6770 134 891 203 2 0 0
OW 3 212 41 743 351 2 0 0
VODI 0 128 20 778 1142 28 0 0
ODI 0 24 12 394 800 174 0 0
CDI 0 190 16 438 3690 3546 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 1196 13333 5877 520

Date: 2022-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4766 6588 115 743 274 1 0 0
OW 4 364 69 743 274 1 0 0
VODI 6 183 13 1201 762 0 0 0
ODI 0 79 9 426 1541 62 0 0
CDI 0 139 12 82 3264 4651 34 0
VCDI 0 139 0 26 340 7243 9950 1762
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4766 6474 113 942 372 1 0 0
OW 4 468 54 620 386 1 0 0
VODI 6 179 21 863 673 23 0 0
ODI 0 25 10 298 796 31 0 0
CDI 0 119 15 469 3558 3787 41 0
VCDI 0 227 5 29 670 8115 9943 1762

Date: 2022-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5324 6396 108 695 248 0 0 0
OW 2 506 75 768 310 0 0 0
VODI 0 131 44 1171 495 11 0 0
ODI 0 78 10 349 1365 185 0 0
CDI 0 121 8 152 2983 4896 366 0
VCDI 0 118 4 108 899 9852 7108 980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5324 6293 129 1038 444 0 0 0
OW 2 521 39 551 235 6 0 0
VODI 0 171 46 754 457 46 0 0
ODI 0 63 9 288 695 254 0 0
CDI 0 161 21 471 3158 3775 291 0
VCDI 0 141 5 141 1311 10863 7183 980


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