Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-06-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 734 5329 124 989 137 5 0 0
OW 17 162 26 686 418 23 3 0
VODI 0 81 11 488 1544 264 16 0
ODI 0 73 7 132 535 493 24 0
CDI 0 101 15 268 1561 1308 453 0
VCDI 0 6 6 124 6022 8178 6577 8926
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1169 5364 149 858 223 17 0 0
OW 14 154 9 728 843 60 3 0
VODI 0 139 8 327 1249 389 4 0
ODI 0 110 12 129 505 406 2 0
CDI 0 87 17 376 1878 1363 202 0
VCDI 0 16 4 163 10385 7468 8280 2756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1205 5892 127 808 230 16 0 0
OW 12 141 44 651 310 14 5 0
VODI 0 55 13 612 958 27 10 0
ODI 0 29 4 478 1560 211 10 0
CDI 0 11 5 282 2981 2106 84 0
VCDI 0 1 1 72 11180 9433 6178 110
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1387 6139 121 839 191 29 0 0
OW 9 191 26 858 433 21 4 0
VODI 0 69 19 473 1290 130 6 0
ODI 0 12 10 279 1306 446 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 284 2922 1759 352 0
VCDI 0 0 0 54 7899 13095 5040 173
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1387 6184 130 1070 264 35 1 0
OW 9 145 14 645 401 15 4 0
VODI 0 71 21 427 1217 109 5 0
ODI 0 11 11 306 1236 427 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 286 2992 1843 359 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 7931 13051 5033 173

Date: 2022-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2636 5578 109 684 252 24 0 0
OW 7 509 32 889 256 29 0 0
VODI 0 107 35 793 774 83 0 0
ODI 0 20 8 344 1210 318 0 0
CDI 0 13 4 429 2730 2099 127 0
VCDI 0 1 0 70 3703 15023 6518 452
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2636 5864 116 881 266 33 0 0
OW 7 270 33 769 258 16 0 0
VODI 0 63 27 702 714 64 0 0
ODI 0 17 8 378 1178 344 0 0
CDI 0 13 4 409 2732 2057 117 0
VCDI 0 1 0 70 3777 15062 6528 452

Date: 2022-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3023 6022 105 648 205 10 0 0
OW 5 360 66 886 136 19 0 0
VODI 0 27 13 838 595 38 0 0
ODI 0 92 13 380 1826 396 0 0
CDI 0 65 18 375 3824 2929 3 0
VCDI 0 2 0 5 1927 16107 4665 243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3023 5903 110 894 276 24 0 0
OW 5 308 36 752 270 28 0 0
VODI 0 184 35 491 578 191 0 0
ODI 0 89 11 406 1124 396 0 0
CDI 0 73 22 549 2978 2032 3 0
VCDI 0 11 1 40 3287 16828 4665 243

Date: 2022-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3494 6469 107 623 217 16 0 0
OW 5 274 48 776 168 13 0 0
VODI 0 125 13 818 678 12 0 0
ODI 0 70 10 429 1750 96 0 0
CDI 0 28 4 465 4036 3044 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 1753 16336 3958 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3494 6043 97 853 304 23 0 0
OW 5 557 30 483 260 7 0 0
VODI 0 180 29 569 768 32 0 0
ODI 0 110 15 496 1138 77 0 0
CDI 0 75 11 696 3615 2297 27 0
VCDI 0 1 0 18 2517 17081 3958 0

Date: 2022-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3792 6520 127 782 176 19 0 0
OW 4 175 26 785 260 10 0 0
VODI 0 134 22 765 991 49 0 0
ODI 0 57 12 377 1368 148 0 0
CDI 0 140 13 466 4131 2894 39 0
VCDI 0 35 0 56 1413 17519 2518 43
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3792 6192 103 983 305 19 0 0
OW 4 412 27 430 293 12 0 0
VODI 0 100 28 628 936 90 0 0
ODI 0 105 17 445 895 95 0 0
CDI 0 217 25 691 3826 2468 39 0
VCDI 0 35 0 54 2084 17955 2518 43


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