Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-06-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 202 3962 110 1118 114 2 0 0
OW 0 157 15 613 428 13 0 0
VODI 0 90 10 227 931 206 2 0
ODI 0 85 4 113 957 689 30 0
CDI 0 104 11 136 885 1067 185 0
VCDI 0 53 11 189 1299 4936 18865 8047
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 294 4166 118 1296 272 0 0 0
OW 16 143 8 379 703 5 1 0
VODI 0 102 8 134 1005 454 10 0
ODI 0 77 10 119 728 553 25 0
CDI 0 200 16 198 642 1314 129 4
VCDI 0 32 7 335 1548 5035 13314 12466
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 296 4869 132 1200 202 1 0 0
OW 0 92 28 428 382 7 0 0
VODI 0 51 7 256 1240 81 4 0
ODI 0 57 5 114 1445 592 11 2
CDI 0 92 15 190 1247 1525 234 5
VCDI 0 3 3 143 3642 6196 11539 9530
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 467 5313 131 1055 100 0 0 0
OW 0 153 37 572 324 16 1 0
VODI 0 70 9 482 1721 172 10 0
ODI 0 60 4 132 774 449 29 0
CDI 0 99 20 228 1288 1595 387 0
VCDI 0 4 2 136 3956 7518 7873 10679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 467 5281 139 1173 190 2 0 0
OW 0 180 24 439 300 17 1 0
VODI 0 75 13 490 1534 133 11 0
ODI 0 61 6 137 864 483 25 0
CDI 0 98 19 230 1342 1546 338 0
VCDI 0 4 2 136 3933 7569 7925 10679

Date: 2022-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 927 5402 140 860 188 16 0 0
OW 17 133 24 742 627 33 6 0
VODI 0 100 15 272 1552 265 23 0
ODI 0 85 6 110 490 499 20 0
CDI 0 91 16 269 1616 1507 402 0
VCDI 0 13 3 162 7545 7209 8374 6107
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 927 5363 137 1005 350 19 0 0
OW 17 172 27 596 564 26 4 0
VODI 0 97 15 270 1382 255 21 0
ODI 0 85 6 115 564 527 22 0
CDI 0 94 16 269 1686 1456 375 0
VCDI 0 13 3 160 7472 7246 8403 6107

Date: 2022-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1153 5744 121 802 146 14 0 0
OW 14 166 28 475 173 11 3 0
VODI 0 63 15 594 924 24 9 0
ODI 0 31 5 199 1965 290 8 0
CDI 0 25 7 282 2677 2497 84 0
VCDI 0 3 4 262 11712 6771 7829 736
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1155 5524 121 1146 614 26 0 0
OW 12 199 19 443 907 71 9 0
VODI 0 124 11 192 823 460 22 0
ODI 0 93 9 133 508 478 5 0
CDI 0 86 14 373 1994 1430 204 0
VCDI 0 6 6 327 12751 7142 7693 736

Date: 2022-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1299 6027 130 861 156 17 0 0
OW 9 144 38 956 227 19 2 0
VODI 0 74 15 806 1007 43 10 0
ODI 0 48 4 289 1328 332 7 0
CDI 0 12 3 327 2949 1809 249 0
VCDI 0 0 0 71 8604 12061 5884 49
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1299 5785 143 1713 374 39 2 0
OW 9 191 14 548 898 64 16 0
VODI 0 175 11 295 561 272 1 0
ODI 0 104 11 181 559 292 1 0
CDI 0 50 11 396 2283 1104 348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 177 9596 12510 5784 49

Date: 2022-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2696 5290 115 672 201 20 0 0
OW 8 559 37 713 258 22 0 0
VODI 0 136 30 982 723 57 0 0
ODI 0 22 10 328 1373 282 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 341 2837 1950 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 4682 15572 5379 388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2695 5290 124 1463 541 50 0 0
OW 9 316 22 483 467 47 0 0
VODI 0 198 18 293 497 172 0 0
ODI 0 116 10 195 517 187 0 0
CDI 0 87 18 430 2660 1165 172 0
VCDI 0 0 0 231 5392 16282 5331 388


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