Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-06-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81831 17429 278 1712 190 35 16 0
OW 24 829 114 1617 714 56 12 0
VODI 0 368 70 1492 2223 329 22 0
ODI 0 287 29 759 2811 1179 98 0
CDI 0 313 42 423 3722 4765 1976 0
VCDI 0 58 14 252 2156 11595 32586 14622
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81926 17918 285 2146 415 53 0 0
OW 36 968 122 1293 1304 44 1 0
VODI 0 439 66 1251 2165 580 16 0
ODI 0 290 43 702 2582 1047 44 0
CDI 0 427 43 501 3669 4402 1865 4
VCDI 0 44 12 368 2464 9605 27305 20603
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82375 19409 314 1984 353 11 4 0
OW 19 647 169 1552 596 33 20 0
VODI 0 328 44 1674 2358 154 25 0
ODI 0 205 19 451 3672 1255 39 2
CDI 0 176 33 476 3081 5141 609 5
VCDI 0 3 4 207 4176 11334 29633 14458
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83605 19324 321 1890 224 13 0 0
OW 18 961 156 1754 622 56 17 0
VODI 0 341 51 1539 2831 326 43 0
ODI 0 237 11 456 2468 1334 146 0
CDI 0 255 56 615 2911 4806 1059 0
VCDI 0 4 2 151 4550 14254 24724 14917
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83605 19487 347 2188 355 22 0 0
OW 18 815 130 1474 595 55 15 0
VODI 0 325 49 1509 2563 299 46 0
ODI 0 237 16 472 2623 1343 162 0
CDI 0 254 53 613 2951 4755 986 0
VCDI 0 4 2 149 4519 14315 24780 14917

Date: 2022-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84973 19257 317 1694 288 37 0 0
OW 32 1047 121 1591 1032 79 12 0
VODI 0 422 93 1158 2608 453 84 0
ODI 0 294 16 501 2169 1288 185 0
CDI 0 287 61 742 3500 5070 1020 0
VCDI 0 13 3 168 7802 11583 27120 9928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84973 19516 339 1966 511 42 0 0
OW 32 822 110 1335 926 76 11 0
VODI 0 395 82 1138 2419 456 63 0
ODI 0 294 16 509 2262 1249 211 0
CDI 0 280 61 735 3562 5007 1081 0
VCDI 0 13 3 171 7719 11680 27055 9928

Date: 2022-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85362 20684 288 1403 220 16 0 0
OW 29 796 155 1228 417 31 3 0
VODI 0 225 65 1971 1876 110 9 0
ODI 0 92 25 640 4549 723 11 0
CDI 0 92 23 527 4585 7734 523 0
VCDI 0 3 4 262 11798 12375 23794 4400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85367 20105 299 2037 840 57 0 0
OW 24 849 96 1130 1345 148 9 0
VODI 0 417 80 996 1870 745 22 0
ODI 0 275 25 634 2060 1209 103 0
CDI 0 240 54 902 4249 5565 705 0
VCDI 0 6 6 332 13081 13265 23501 4400

Date: 2022-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85973 21019 304 1497 256 21 0 0
OW 20 712 186 1886 515 51 2 0
VODI 0 247 58 2092 2040 132 10 0
ODI 0 127 21 711 3471 1019 10 0
CDI 0 92 17 585 5170 7702 1272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 8838 19530 20416 956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85973 20258 330 2657 638 99 2 0
OW 20 825 88 1265 1265 135 16 0
VODI 0 500 80 1196 1626 549 1 0
ODI 0 336 34 650 2004 1006 18 0
CDI 0 271 52 875 4681 5898 1459 0
VCDI 0 7 2 218 10076 20768 20214 956

Date: 2022-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87654 20252 309 1391 321 32 0 0
OW 17 1078 148 1768 674 58 0 0
VODI 0 321 72 2141 2005 180 0 0
ODI 0 89 22 752 3220 1068 4 0
CDI 0 71 14 622 5347 9195 967 0
VCDI 0 0 0 72 4956 24748 16711 769
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87653 19717 302 2601 823 117 0 0
OW 18 959 90 1088 948 144 0 0
VODI 0 543 86 1184 1749 462 0 0
ODI 0 312 41 668 1856 860 0 0
CDI 0 279 45 949 5343 7702 1936 1
VCDI 0 1 1 256 5804 25996 15746 768


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