Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-06-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73378 13525 183 1554 534 15 3 0
OW 60 405 85 834 593 28 5 0
VODI 0 129 30 881 1325 225 18 0
ODI 0 284 31 733 1806 482 86 0
CDI 0 278 37 767 3525 3874 792 2
VCDI 0 190 29 564 2359 11215 31655 34529
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73577 13842 186 1720 377 17 1 0
OW 59 498 69 804 811 36 2 0
VODI 0 200 45 775 1322 257 3 0
ODI 0 312 40 819 1718 588 37 0
CDI 0 331 37 804 3622 4641 1484 4
VCDI 0 214 43 597 1894 9809 31186 34267
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74260 14727 212 1512 323 7 0 0
OW 52 419 69 1080 607 4 1 0
VODI 0 170 46 1137 2011 28 0 0
ODI 0 126 23 540 2666 510 7 0
CDI 0 217 30 715 3325 5882 1253 12
VCDI 0 122 16 274 1169 9855 35616 28025
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75877 13969 217 1407 393 10 0 0
OW 51 486 73 1291 828 25 1 0
VODI 0 224 60 1071 1936 157 4 0
ODI 0 140 23 614 1924 530 185 0
CDI 0 271 38 767 4463 5117 1548 16
VCDI 0 153 26 380 2413 14264 34950 21146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75877 13979 218 1507 602 13 0 0
OW 51 468 77 1137 790 30 1 0
VODI 0 243 60 1144 1728 162 2 0
ODI 0 145 19 590 1904 490 118 0
CDI 0 260 37 804 4465 5177 1613 16
VCDI 0 148 26 348 2468 14231 34954 21146

Date: 2022-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76924 13895 220 1721 514 7 0 0
OW 50 650 86 1049 1081 49 1 0
VODI 0 338 59 1062 1298 210 28 0
ODI 0 186 33 675 1784 446 238 0
CDI 0 333 38 783 4661 5307 1852 12
VCDI 0 310 31 371 1690 13915 31617 23524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76924 13898 226 1742 862 12 1 0
OW 50 637 78 1009 709 49 0 0
VODI 0 359 65 1088 1311 172 19 0
ODI 0 194 29 667 1790 478 213 0
CDI 0 318 37 779 4681 5411 2043 12
VCDI 0 306 32 376 1675 13812 31460 23524

Date: 2022-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78293 13776 212 1827 536 20 0 0
OW 50 635 117 955 582 19 0 0
VODI 0 302 53 1417 1395 65 1 0
ODI 0 199 22 693 2887 562 28 0
CDI 0 527 61 705 4108 7860 1426 3
VCDI 0 142 21 283 1239 10750 36444 18833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78293 13234 215 2165 1006 37 0 0
OW 50 662 64 715 715 58 1 0
VODI 0 552 70 815 1205 249 40 0
ODI 0 266 29 661 1644 758 173 1
CDI 0 540 67 1042 4156 6456 2453 14
VCDI 0 327 41 482 2021 11718 35232 18821

Date: 2022-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78925 14145 212 1945 681 8 0 0
OW 47 667 95 1161 693 16 1 0
VODI 0 332 47 1091 1499 76 2 0
ODI 0 306 26 686 2558 679 51 0
CDI 0 628 63 698 4620 6633 1750 2
VCDI 0 192 36 648 1156 7637 38147 18889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78922 13421 205 2207 1102 34 1 0
OW 50 749 59 647 658 84 3 0
VODI 0 670 58 811 1221 271 81 0
ODI 0 411 33 685 1763 788 84 0
CDI 0 729 76 1280 4938 5858 2532 9
VCDI 0 290 48 599 1525 8014 37250 18882

Date: 2022-06-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78426 15804 280 1966 570 3 0 0
OW 33 645 103 1306 675 15 1 0
VODI 0 482 48 930 1636 123 0 0
ODI 0 403 22 724 2364 1015 13 0
CDI 0 657 64 793 4960 5273 2090 13
VCDI 0 214 37 598 1307 11322 31658 20475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78425 14863 271 2202 1014 39 1 0
OW 34 940 69 665 506 130 1 0
VODI 0 689 55 882 1319 263 3 0
ODI 0 575 37 718 1867 877 122 0
CDI 0 752 73 1166 5244 5013 2702 18
VCDI 0 386 49 684 1562 11429 30933 20470


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