Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5 0 20 32 0 0 0
OW 0 18 0 36 264 7 0 0
VODI 0 18 1 90 618 119 28 0
ODI 0 21 2 172 505 204 64 0
CDI 0 47 7 322 904 603 1045 40
VCDI 0 100 17 344 1280 3317 10691 24925
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 28 6 47 31 5 0 0
OW 0 43 3 78 348 19 7 0
VODI 0 26 4 168 687 156 29 0
ODI 0 38 4 151 563 215 53 0
CDI 0 69 7 263 927 662 574 33
VCDI 0 112 24 343 1147 2458 12416 24122
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 4 52 15 0 0 0
OW 0 51 5 203 179 5 7 0
VODI 0 37 5 222 897 35 1 0
ODI 0 53 3 90 1017 167 2 0
CDI 0 123 13 179 1260 1099 182 0
VCDI 0 90 14 211 668 2849 12280 23802
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 124 6 112 22 1 1 0
OW 0 96 9 318 282 8 4 0
VODI 0 55 1 165 849 85 8 0
ODI 0 58 7 84 630 228 13 0
CDI 0 119 15 175 1079 840 308 2
VCDI 0 108 14 221 797 2763 14969 21290
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 117 6 130 147 3 2 0
OW 0 83 8 263 334 30 3 0
VODI 0 75 2 193 582 105 10 0
ODI 0 64 6 93 641 222 27 0
CDI 0 117 15 174 1052 691 327 0
VCDI 0 104 15 222 903 2874 14934 21292

Date: 2022-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 121 19 296 50 8 2 0
OW 0 90 7 307 420 5 1 0
VODI 0 40 2 115 796 114 0 0
ODI 0 50 2 37 670 208 4 0
CDI 0 106 16 86 996 1065 295 1
VCDI 0 82 15 318 767 2985 16016 19754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 119 17 328 288 26 2 0
OW 0 78 8 222 286 42 1 0
VODI 0 58 3 158 628 109 0 0
ODI 0 43 3 48 685 209 10 0
CDI 0 102 15 79 944 958 373 0
VCDI 0 89 15 324 868 3041 15932 19755

Date: 2022-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 149 5 308 32 9 1 0
OW 0 77 4 317 230 1 1 0
VODI 0 49 4 227 1076 4 0 0
ODI 0 38 5 61 1365 169 0 0
CDI 0 69 10 179 809 1616 174 2
VCDI 0 51 8 202 502 3926 15615 18571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 113 5 445 435 31 1 0
OW 0 58 2 233 414 21 1 0
VODI 0 49 1 123 694 82 0 0
ODI 0 34 4 50 625 188 4 0
CDI 0 96 12 145 1125 1092 488 2
VCDI 0 83 12 298 721 4311 15297 18571

Date: 2022-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 218 11 348 126 7 0 0
OW 0 107 9 506 431 2 0 0
VODI 0 65 9 447 1094 14 0 0
ODI 0 45 4 200 811 123 0 0
CDI 0 103 11 292 1664 967 113 15
VCDI 0 39 8 153 1786 4705 18185 13248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 170 11 468 597 7 0 0
OW 0 71 7 353 452 2 0 0
VODI 0 66 4 286 572 53 0 0
ODI 0 60 4 243 604 142 0 1
CDI 0 138 13 374 1368 1068 192 7
VCDI 0 72 13 222 2319 4546 18106 13255

Date: 2022-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 388 24 616 271 5 0 0
OW 0 86 9 542 817 7 0 0
VODI 0 39 5 267 830 32 0 0
ODI 0 37 2 161 621 169 12 0
CDI 0 117 16 304 1516 1699 255 13
VCDI 0 49 7 125 747 8357 16600 11121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 255 20 634 660 5 0 0
OW 0 88 5 335 536 5 0 0
VODI 0 78 4 276 451 93 4 0
ODI 0 52 6 229 613 272 40 2
CDI 0 166 17 410 1396 1800 705 21
VCDI 0 77 11 131 1146 8094 16118 11111


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