Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70507 14662 199 1316 737 103 1 0 OW 63 228 61 536 767 53 3 0 VODI 0 154 16 474 1289 239 51 0 ODI 0 130 17 456 1432 519 163 0 CDI 0 178 33 654 2834 2803 1699 69 VCDI 0 280 39 744 3346 10211 27310 42672	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70895 14519 198 1538 828 36 0 0 OW 62 273 40 572 723 81 14 0 VODI 0 183 26 614 1251 328 64 0 ODI 0 197 24 422 1380 457 258 0 CDI 0 278 38 650 2823 3077 1615 37 VCDI 0 366 57 802 3542 9019 28684 41077	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71359 14558 202 1445 609 13 0 0 OW 61 263 68 858 398 31 7 0 VODI 0 147 27 832 1611 99 10 0 ODI 0 165 16 445 2539 382 42 0 CDI 0 367 48 629 4333 4211 724 0 VCDI 0 191 26 397 2160 10664 28173 38938	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72026 14655 197 1471 480 7 1 0 OW 61 352 80 931 526 30 4 0 VODI 0 132 29 885 1459 145 20 0 ODI 0 267 35 609 1974 461 67 0 CDI 0 310 38 760 3659 3545 812 2 VCDI 0 201 27 510 2523 11239 32316 34202	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 72026 14684 202 1615 650 9 2 0 OW 61 312 71 739 586 50 3 0 VODI 0 154 33 883 1100 166 19 0 ODI 0 263 33 633 1957 426 100 0 CDI 0 314 39 786 3666 3505 893 0 VCDI 0 190 28 510 2662 11271 32203 34204

Date: 2022-05-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73248 13834 176 1614 569 38 2 0 OW 60 445 79 791 652 49 5 0 VODI 0 166 26 793 1326 239 23 0 ODI 0 291 36 814 1706 472 150 0 CDI 0 278 37 780 3834 4082 1035 1 VCDI 0 198 32 604 2263 10389 32833 33078	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73248 13920 186 1724 867 64 2 0 OW 60 350 69 622 494 92 4 0 VODI 0 187 29 809 1070 201 20 0 ODI 0 279 34 827 1748 480 162 0 CDI 0 280 38 743 3802 4141 1250 0 VCDI 0 196 30 671 2369 10291 32610 33079

Date: 2022-05-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73919 14542 215 1455 294 11 1 0 OW 56 402 95 1083 392 13 2 0 VODI 0 149 36 1316 1736 39 0 0 ODI 0 106 18 510 3290 384 3 0 CDI 0 210 32 682 3277 6322 594 2 VCDI 0 123 14 294 1094 9899 33942 30496	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73917 13841 195 1731 837 45 1 0 OW 58 419 50 635 648 53 2 0 VODI 0 278 47 719 1227 199 2 0 ODI 0 339 42 789 1698 572 53 0 CDI 0 425 43 860 3808 4986 1842 2 VCDI 0 230 33 606 1865 10813 32642 30496

Date: 2022-06-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75553 13939 211 1341 333 7 0 0 OW 52 491 88 1242 603 12 1 0 VODI 0 231 54 1333 1865 83 0 0 ODI 0 132 22 734 2201 492 30 0 CDI 0 243 35 802 4296 4646 1688 15 VCDI 0 138 18 340 2761 11174 35556 24286	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 75551 12811 171 1388 956 20 0 0 OW 54 562 49 710 688 46 0 0 VODI 0 584 72 921 1066 234 15 0 ODI 0 464 54 1033 1489 468 83 1 CDI 0 550 53 1129 3889 4193 2077 7 VCDI 0 203 29 611 3971 11453 35100 24293

Date: 2022-06-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76260 14020 221 1561 465 14 0 0 OW 50 620 69 1159 1031 33 1 0 VODI 0 269 66 1098 1552 170 11 0 ODI 0 149 21 630 1895 413 196 0 CDI 0 340 43 718 4570 5413 1529 42 VCDI 0 245 31 371 1946 14997 34194 20635	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 76259 12484 179 1559 1014 48 0 0 OW 51 689 38 668 748 70 10 0 VODI 0 833 67 831 880 263 192 0 ODI 0 581 66 881 1454 415 217 2 CDI 0 696 52 1073 4287 5708 2328 48 VCDI 0 360 49 525 3076 14536 33184 20627

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