Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-05-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 16 59 24 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 190 122 19 0
ODI 0 3 1 13 223 216 93 0
CDI 0 1 1 92 497 704 573 44
VCDI 0 71 11 250 1342 5364 13567 22343
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 45 92 39 1 0
VODI 0 5 3 63 226 114 35 0
ODI 0 6 0 30 244 169 99 0
CDI 0 2 4 137 813 1062 234 17
VCDI 0 61 10 209 1480 5672 13173 21812
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 6 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 20 77 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 57 388 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 684 201 7 0
CDI 0 3 1 154 1100 1382 450 17
VCDI 0 65 8 195 1007 2929 11858 25162
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 9 22 0 0 0
OW 0 16 0 33 189 3 0 0
VODI 0 13 3 84 581 88 15 0
ODI 0 14 3 139 541 197 49 0
CDI 0 35 10 361 982 719 941 34
VCDI 0 99 14 278 1278 2888 11049 25179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 8 19 0 0 0
OW 0 12 0 37 266 8 0 0
VODI 0 15 3 87 579 115 14 0
ODI 0 15 3 150 438 168 41 0
CDI 0 37 10 344 996 650 811 27
VCDI 0 98 14 278 1295 2954 11188 25186

Date: 2022-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 1 37 48 6 0 0
OW 0 34 2 33 290 23 1 0
VODI 0 24 2 86 707 172 13 0
ODI 0 23 3 160 599 182 47 0
CDI 0 55 5 274 885 670 896 17
VCDI 0 101 17 379 1234 2992 11894 23945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 12 2 41 96 8 0 0
OW 0 31 0 32 415 34 1 0
VODI 0 24 3 99 539 174 10 0
ODI 0 24 3 158 506 156 41 0
CDI 0 54 5 265 942 621 874 25
VCDI 0 101 17 374 1265 3052 11925 23937

Date: 2022-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 33 4 40 15 0 0 0
OW 0 53 3 84 118 3 6 0
VODI 0 37 6 324 711 27 4 0
ODI 0 59 2 143 1259 191 8 0
CDI 0 116 15 218 1042 1155 154 0
VCDI 0 92 19 194 706 2382 12332 24311
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 43 5 84 177 4 2 0
OW 0 30 3 121 473 52 10 0
VODI 0 26 3 171 430 159 51 0
ODI 0 40 3 90 536 124 33 0
CDI 0 122 12 200 961 629 403 16
VCDI 0 129 23 337 1274 2790 12005 24295

Date: 2022-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 69 3 86 5 0 1 0
OW 0 73 10 294 214 6 5 0
VODI 0 63 6 209 874 49 10 0
ODI 0 62 4 126 721 230 5 0
CDI 0 129 12 223 1243 871 224 1
VCDI 0 102 15 225 695 3001 12812 23188
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 72 8 177 234 17 6 0
OW 0 58 4 146 445 62 12 0
VODI 0 41 4 177 339 143 44 0
ODI 0 45 3 111 495 129 23 0
CDI 0 127 9 192 1140 557 453 3
VCDI 0 155 22 360 1099 3249 12519 23186

Date: 2022-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 130 10 212 54 3 3 0
OW 0 102 7 291 332 7 2 0
VODI 0 42 1 160 777 142 1 0
ODI 0 58 3 76 612 233 14 0
CDI 0 108 17 137 981 1012 186 2
VCDI 0 89 16 284 778 3519 14996 20469
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 126 13 303 363 59 3 0
OW 0 46 2 131 313 87 14 0
VODI 0 49 2 184 317 108 43 0
ODI 0 53 3 59 513 99 33 0
CDI 0 131 10 125 909 808 401 60
VCDI 0 124 24 358 1119 3755 14708 20411


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