Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-05-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69898 14510 176 1107 478 43 12 0 OW 71 307 39 328 763 179 8 0 VODI 0 136 21 361 874 240 61 0 ODI 0 23 22 293 892 446 185 0 CDI 0 13 3 303 2188 2172 1007 53 VCDI 0 80 14 410 3076 13099 29716 43441	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-15:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70886 13695 173 1162 629 114 27 0 OW 70 244 33 393 691 130 15 0 VODI 0 139 24 381 787 225 80 0 ODI 0 53 19 309 928 384 192 0 CDI 0 21 7 429 2549 2739 806 18 VCDI 0 144 16 435 3614 12950 28258 43279	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-17:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70985 13873 185 1130 472 125 0 0 OW 66 152 44 576 502 83 2 0 VODI 0 81 13 478 1318 106 17 0 ODI 0 29 12 297 1822 454 49 0 CDI 0 40 6 426 3177 4069 961 50 VCDI 0 141 15 438 2847 9373 27537 45097	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-19:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70880 14176 175 1226 657 95 2 0 OW 64 234 62 596 747 50 3 0 VODI 0 149 18 487 1257 167 36 0 ODI 0 103 12 407 1531 493 129 0 CDI 0 103 28 768 3049 2763 1428 58 VCDI 0 284 37 648 3247 10100 27399 43380	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70881 14191 188 1284 859 119 2 0 OW 63 226 47 565 668 34 3 0 VODI 0 144 21 451 1242 187 33 0 ODI 0 100 9 439 1296 505 110 0 CDI 0 104 30 749 3058 2630 1310 50 VCDI 0 284 37 644 3365 10193 27539 43388

Date: 2022-05-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70596 14564 181 1527 871 50 0 0 OW 63 241 51 494 712 80 5 0 VODI 0 169 20 506 1323 329 39 0 ODI 0 160 28 421 1495 437 208 0 CDI 0 257 32 595 2906 2977 1685 28 VCDI 0 317 50 825 3553 9534 28741 40978	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70596 14622 188 1576 1075 47 0 0 OW 63 194 48 461 730 105 5 0 VODI 0 150 17 499 1153 322 36 0 ODI 0 160 25 420 1322 422 177 0 CDI 0 265 31 594 2978 2912 1655 29 VCDI 0 317 53 818 3602 9599 28805 40977

Date: 2022-05-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70922 14662 194 1475 680 7 0 0 OW 62 290 62 732 323 28 6 0 VODI 0 166 34 987 1367 102 7 0 ODI 0 165 16 486 2859 441 43 0 CDI 0 370 51 703 3787 4449 628 0 VCDI 0 183 25 333 2106 9095 28828 40374	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 70922 14616 218 1891 1031 45 3 0 OW 62 175 25 500 793 105 13 0 VODI 0 158 22 545 1025 309 90 0 ODI 0 155 27 378 1300 490 162 0 CDI 0 352 40 589 3189 3108 1417 16 VCDI 0 380 50 813 3784 10065 27827 40358

Date: 2022-05-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71693 14635 202 1441 519 6 1 0 OW 61 301 75 938 445 27 5 0 VODI 0 143 33 927 1495 116 16 0 ODI 0 222 24 483 2222 445 58 0 CDI 0 345 40 709 4291 3735 704 1 VCDI 0 194 26 415 2345 9958 32347 35405	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 71693 14426 216 1792 942 70 8 0 OW 61 327 41 487 693 109 20 0 VODI 0 167 24 643 844 284 93 0 ODI 0 134 19 483 1370 521 144 0 CDI 0 367 49 558 3861 3065 1051 3 VCDI 0 419 51 950 3607 10238 31815 35403

Date: 2022-05-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73378 13525 183 1554 534 15 3 0 OW 60 405 85 834 593 28 5 0 VODI 0 129 30 881 1325 225 18 0 ODI 0 284 31 733 1806 482 86 0 CDI 0 278 37 767 3525 3874 792 2 VCDI 0 190 29 564 2359 11215 31655 34529	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 73378 13099 195 1867 1092 128 9 0 OW 60 410 29 425 577 159 29 0 VODI 0 316 36 539 803 337 138 0 ODI 0 209 29 526 1182 521 175 0 CDI 0 386 54 774 3161 3099 1494 66 VCDI 0 391 52 1202 3327 11595 30714 34465

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