Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-05-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68693 14918 170 818 482 86 1 0
OW 59 220 52 509 378 89 20 0
VODI 0 31 21 307 776 204 44 0
ODI 0 0 0 120 667 421 92 0
CDI 0 4 2 25 670 2171 319 0
VCDI 0 6 2 62 223 3746 6462 6230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68816 14908 188 977 379 41 3 0
OW 59 250 50 457 430 44 20 0
VODI 0 43 17 296 698 240 50 0
ODI 0 0 1 141 693 427 97 0
CDI 0 1 1 44 978 1855 662 0
VCDI 0 28 5 84 422 3457 5710 6528
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69420 14646 186 947 351 28 0 0
OW 56 168 41 413 405 33 3 0
VODI 0 22 13 304 889 131 33 0
ODI 0 0 0 130 990 297 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 1036 2066 498 0
VCDI 0 0 0 80 918 3108 5645 6119
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69917 14306 153 941 461 30 2 0
OW 71 245 37 399 607 92 14 0
VODI 0 89 32 270 737 109 47 0
ODI 0 11 10 175 619 201 95 0
CDI 0 0 0 142 1260 1433 286 3
VCDI 0 0 0 76 621 4012 5727 5870
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69917 14347 157 986 526 34 2 0
OW 71 223 37 334 497 90 14 0
VODI 0 72 29 313 826 113 43 0
ODI 0 9 9 172 564 217 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 122 1306 1551 261 3
VCDI 0 0 0 76 586 3872 5770 5870

Date: 2022-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70708 13619 156 1087 649 118 6 0
OW 71 210 38 232 658 111 6 0
VODI 0 120 9 203 533 129 35 0
ODI 0 44 22 147 552 214 88 0
CDI 0 17 4 169 1175 1234 443 0
VCDI 0 53 8 110 971 3584 5699 5868
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70708 13665 166 1100 687 110 6 0
OW 71 183 28 244 614 118 4 0
VODI 0 121 16 186 568 149 29 0
ODI 0 24 15 151 504 231 76 0
CDI 0 14 4 153 1194 1256 365 0
VCDI 0 56 8 114 971 3526 5797 5868

Date: 2022-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70949 13720 151 957 359 92 19 0
OW 67 153 42 450 417 83 8 0
VODI 0 60 20 371 708 67 15 0
ODI 0 15 6 171 1176 160 29 0
CDI 0 35 2 107 1372 2329 169 0
VCDI 0 60 5 100 583 2157 6015 5901
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70949 13616 165 1143 655 150 19 0
OW 67 166 18 283 531 85 22 0
VODI 0 100 18 215 534 95 49 0
ODI 0 41 13 177 513 244 81 0
CDI 0 19 4 191 1341 1644 268 1
VCDI 0 101 8 147 1041 2670 5816 5900

Date: 2022-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70863 13822 167 1035 654 126 1 0
OW 65 134 45 412 513 61 4 0
VODI 0 100 12 291 716 65 20 0
ODI 0 60 11 147 791 256 55 0
CDI 0 39 10 192 1344 1681 303 0
VCDI 0 118 11 158 627 2352 5813 6026
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70863 13649 161 1130 1049 158 8 0
OW 65 183 33 237 378 68 20 0
VODI 0 139 20 261 447 105 44 0
ODI 0 80 11 183 502 233 154 0
CDI 0 55 14 210 1200 1407 324 0
VCDI 0 167 17 214 1069 2570 5646 6026

Date: 2022-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70507 14498 188 1220 702 103 1 0
OW 63 164 49 383 462 46 3 0
VODI 0 130 12 253 543 112 23 0
ODI 0 102 10 154 712 243 73 0
CDI 0 78 15 176 1316 1489 287 0
VCDI 0 95 14 178 487 2673 5977 5559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70506 14253 178 1249 936 144 5 0
OW 64 229 32 242 240 65 17 0
VODI 0 195 26 249 386 93 41 0
ODI 0 110 17 186 543 201 152 0
CDI 0 116 17 192 1188 1125 323 2
VCDI 0 164 18 246 929 3038 5826 5557


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