Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-05-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68693 14958 175 826 488 86 1 0
OW 59 221 54 535 418 92 20 0
VODI 0 31 21 333 872 227 44 0
ODI 0 0 0 150 838 513 94 0
CDI 0 4 2 69 1116 3077 532 40
VCDI 0 6 2 136 1469 9929 29530 51387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68816 14961 195 989 380 41 3 0
OW 59 252 51 501 460 45 21 0
VODI 0 44 18 331 781 265 52 0
ODI 0 0 1 165 911 655 125 0
CDI 0 1 1 72 1659 2693 927 64
VCDI 0 63 14 250 2151 11095 29497 48439
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69420 14751 201 1008 362 28 0 0
OW 56 213 50 470 425 33 3 0
VODI 0 45 16 444 1109 210 33 0
ODI 0 6 0 234 1386 524 79 0
CDI 0 21 1 151 2068 2944 637 33
VCDI 0 187 13 265 4094 11994 29369 44165
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69917 14412 168 1009 487 30 2 0
OW 71 290 43 450 671 104 14 0
VODI 0 118 37 396 1005 247 62 0
ODI 0 14 12 298 988 524 141 0
CDI 0 2 1 285 2109 2641 616 45
VCDI 0 78 12 346 2592 15105 28283 43423
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69917 14464 174 1063 564 34 2 0
OW 71 269 41 394 551 96 14 0
VODI 0 89 34 428 1085 241 53 0
ODI 0 12 10 283 922 530 117 0
CDI 0 2 2 261 2171 2802 527 60
VCDI 0 78 12 355 2559 14948 28405 43408

Date: 2022-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70708 13734 165 1161 659 118 6 0
OW 71 265 49 328 747 138 9 0
VODI 0 141 16 348 776 242 66 0
ODI 0 51 22 279 880 443 172 0
CDI 0 18 7 353 2168 2059 1241 30
VCDI 0 114 17 379 3269 12354 30297 43148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70708 13804 176 1198 706 110 6 0
OW 71 220 37 331 687 138 4 0
VODI 0 135 24 325 819 257 49 0
ODI 0 32 15 269 847 455 153 0
CDI 0 15 7 336 2145 2177 1213 46
VCDI 0 117 17 389 3295 12217 30366 43132

Date: 2022-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70949 13847 163 1003 365 92 19 0
OW 67 183 49 606 466 86 8 0
VODI 0 60 23 616 1090 109 15 0
ODI 0 15 6 344 2057 391 47 0
CDI 0 38 3 396 3332 4540 461 20
VCDI 0 116 14 325 2320 9772 26609 46426
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70949 13751 179 1219 694 150 19 0
OW 67 182 20 376 599 116 22 0
VODI 0 106 24 372 875 236 55 0
ODI 0 41 13 299 977 444 141 0
CDI 0 19 4 466 2859 3357 642 53
VCDI 0 160 18 558 3626 10687 26280 46393

Date: 2022-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70863 14010 181 1108 670 126 1 0
OW 65 167 53 583 645 62 4 0
VODI 0 112 17 458 1344 135 21 0
ODI 0 65 13 348 1672 490 87 0
CDI 0 53 15 638 3193 3085 1310 49
VCDI 0 233 35 498 3190 10020 27437 43992
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70863 13832 174 1180 1105 158 8 0
OW 65 210 40 331 549 80 20 0
VODI 0 155 25 388 951 186 49 0
ODI 0 88 15 336 996 438 204 0
CDI 0 71 18 633 2988 2844 1452 84
VCDI 0 284 42 765 4125 10212 27127 43957

Date: 2022-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70507 14662 199 1316 737 103 1 0
OW 63 228 61 536 767 53 3 0
VODI 0 154 16 474 1289 239 51 0
ODI 0 130 17 456 1432 519 163 0
CDI 0 178 33 654 2834 2803 1699 69
VCDI 0 280 39 744 3346 10211 27310 42672
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70506 14445 197 1348 1090 148 5 0
OW 64 267 37 330 495 88 20 0
VODI 0 211 28 432 842 211 85 0
ODI 0 127 21 403 1096 439 205 0
CDI 0 218 36 777 3017 2696 1727 69
VCDI 0 364 46 890 3865 10346 27185 42672


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