Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-05-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-04-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68468 14636 166 1061 580 17 0 0 OW 60 360 47 540 537 51 0 0 VODI 0 69 28 364 959 204 22 0 ODI 0 5 5 163 704 489 29 0 CDI 0 8 3 96 952 1720 370 36 VCDI 0 8 3 143 1158 11032 28733 53222	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68359 14618 184 1161 605 51 1 0 OW 60 416 46 460 577 55 14 0 VODI 0 82 20 343 929 249 39 0 ODI 0 10 9 165 734 479 58 1 CDI 0 11 3 111 1172 1525 702 126 VCDI 0 40 6 134 1621 11304 29446 51122	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68188 15257 181 1011 486 81 0 0 OW 60 88 44 557 423 75 4 0 VODI 0 5 5 356 982 167 22 0 ODI 0 3 2 104 1020 476 61 0 CDI 0 13 2 51 1085 2858 517 29 VCDI 0 16 1 124 1169 10392 29951 51182	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68554 14948 173 922 471 99 2 0 OW 59 165 61 518 442 89 19 0 VODI 0 13 7 398 901 198 41 0 ODI 0 0 0 115 911 545 73 0 CDI 0 4 1 49 998 3074 471 47 VCDI 0 1 3 110 1299 8819 30214 52234	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68554 14913 180 1001 511 98 3 0 OW 59 198 46 431 444 93 20 0 VODI 0 15 15 425 881 218 38 0 ODI 0 0 0 94 922 573 80 0 CDI 0 1 1 41 983 3118 474 49 VCDI 0 4 3 120 1281 8724 30205 52232

Date: 2022-05-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68925 14881 178 850 403 55 2 0 OW 59 235 59 521 478 55 20 0 VODI 0 36 20 330 831 203 40 0 ODI 0 0 0 158 824 577 93 0 CDI 0 6 2 92 1347 2867 746 53 VCDI 0 15 8 146 1644 9747 31641 48901	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68925 14840 181 969 460 55 4 0 OW 59 274 49 368 484 58 20 0 VODI 0 38 27 369 802 218 42 0 ODI 0 0 0 160 834 609 102 0 CDI 0 0 1 75 1340 2849 724 58 VCDI 0 21 9 156 1607 9715 31650 48896

Date: 2022-05-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69221 14857 186 848 300 25 0 0 OW 58 195 71 618 318 19 3 0 VODI 0 4 10 465 931 152 22 0 ODI 0 1 0 132 1607 568 66 0 CDI 0 8 2 95 2071 3544 551 16 VCDI 0 63 13 228 2685 12649 26838 47608	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69221 14677 190 1058 466 43 3 0 OW 58 303 46 370 408 64 22 0 VODI 0 70 29 345 817 346 72 0 ODI 0 6 2 216 1055 547 153 0 CDI 0 0 0 76 1913 2812 754 104 VCDI 0 72 15 321 3253 13145 26476 47520

Date: 2022-05-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69407 14757 200 1052 465 29 1 0 OW 71 281 47 455 490 34 10 0 VODI 0 59 24 448 1272 185 45 0 ODI 0 0 3 279 1189 455 78 0 CDI 0 0 0 209 1902 3177 542 54 VCDI 0 78 12 256 2754 13227 29161 44340	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69407 14496 184 1099 655 51 12 0 OW 71 392 56 391 522 81 41 0 VODI 0 175 20 342 948 266 87 0 ODI 0 34 13 267 1165 591 122 4 CDI 0 0 1 280 1738 2683 560 67 VCDI 0 78 12 320 3044 13435 29015 44323

Date: 2022-05-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69898 14510 176 1107 478 43 12 0 OW 71 307 39 328 763 179 8 0 VODI 0 136 21 361 874 240 61 0 ODI 0 23 22 293 892 446 185 0 CDI 0 13 3 303 2188 2172 1007 53 VCDI 0 80 14 410 3076 13099 29716 43441	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69897 14294 167 1093 625 157 10 0 OW 72 381 41 321 450 129 54 0 VODI 0 207 23 329 950 263 126 0 ODI 0 85 16 279 878 627 255 18 CDI 0 10 13 353 1966 2331 887 164 VCDI 0 92 15 427 3402 12672 29657 43312

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