Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-04-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68547 14762 158 909 478 53 0 0
OW 63 365 45 403 425 29 15 0
VODI 0 131 31 320 772 143 19 0
ODI 0 8 7 170 835 494 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1083 1534 430 5
VCDI 0 0 0 25 720 5125 27074 61781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69293 14237 150 846 440 63 0 0
OW 68 457 40 344 396 54 9 0
VODI 0 157 46 356 673 190 20 0
ODI 0 22 11 196 675 543 40 0
CDI 0 0 1 74 1003 1277 506 13
VCDI 0 0 0 6 826 5629 28132 60255
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69600 14069 121 680 326 65 1 0
OW 61 485 71 426 251 26 9 0
VODI 0 105 48 470 656 155 30 0
ODI 0 3 4 147 941 375 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 794 1751 533 115
VCDI 0 0 0 4 397 4811 30061 59381
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69505 14133 143 739 324 68 0 0
OW 73 433 55 522 338 23 6 0
VODI 2 195 40 432 837 125 29 0
ODI 0 10 10 146 702 385 35 0
CDI 0 1 1 78 893 1565 409 15
VCDI 0 0 0 23 633 5726 29387 59007
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69504 14154 150 756 361 68 0 0
OW 73 467 53 534 341 25 2 0
VODI 3 135 33 412 835 130 33 0
ODI 0 14 11 128 719 400 33 0
CDI 0 2 2 88 842 1481 404 7
VCDI 0 0 0 22 629 5788 29394 59015

Date: 2022-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69109 14526 155 841 314 47 0 0
OW 60 398 49 565 545 25 3 0
VODI 0 137 33 428 785 153 32 0
ODI 0 9 9 130 711 425 56 7
CDI 0 0 2 73 906 1416 406 183
VCDI 0 0 0 11 386 4993 26735 62385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69109 14522 164 937 364 49 0 0
OW 60 406 51 491 499 23 4 0
VODI 0 126 18 404 849 152 32 0
ODI 0 15 13 123 696 502 52 4
CDI 0 1 2 87 868 1356 461 177
VCDI 0 0 0 6 371 4977 26683 62394

Date: 2022-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68482 14992 163 796 301 54 0 0
OW 60 381 59 637 348 15 0 0
VODI 0 29 24 524 955 65 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 82 977 395 10 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 798 1965 361 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 293 5066 24174 65000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68482 14971 170 1082 622 60 0 0
OW 60 329 46 404 553 52 0 0
VODI 0 89 26 345 650 317 13 0
ODI 0 15 4 153 598 578 59 0
CDI 0 3 1 84 633 1289 688 17
VCDI 0 0 0 3 616 5264 23785 64987

Date: 2022-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68389 15070 180 873 406 56 0 0
OW 62 223 57 689 410 30 0 0
VODI 0 43 17 438 961 109 6 0
ODI 0 8 2 147 758 424 27 0
CDI 0 0 1 77 833 1776 547 23
VCDI 0 0 0 56 631 5880 30391 57448
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68380 14818 188 1179 775 73 0 0
OW 66 330 29 355 548 82 1 0
VODI 5 130 22 338 626 300 27 0
ODI 0 54 14 172 617 556 120 0
CDI 0 12 4 162 600 1282 572 43
VCDI 0 0 0 74 833 5982 30251 57428

Date: 2022-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68468 14636 166 1061 580 17 0 0
OW 60 360 47 540 537 51 0 0
VODI 0 69 28 364 959 204 22 0
ODI 0 5 5 163 704 489 29 0
CDI 0 8 3 96 952 1720 370 36
VCDI 0 8 3 143 1158 11032 28733 53222
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68468 14564 176 1218 984 51 0 0
OW 60 308 27 352 620 141 14 0
VODI 0 134 23 286 592 362 42 0
ODI 0 44 12 182 580 569 98 0
CDI 0 31 10 179 826 1688 470 45
VCDI 0 5 4 150 1288 10702 28530 53213


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