Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-04-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67688 15064 164 870 382 95 34 0
OW 61 377 58 427 352 62 27 0
VODI 0 170 39 403 591 143 40 0
ODI 0 26 13 251 621 427 52 0
CDI 0 3 3 127 814 1120 437 33
VCDI 0 0 0 22 1027 5294 27284 62447
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68931 14016 138 719 464 88 38 0
OW 56 483 53 361 351 54 23 0
VODI 0 230 47 385 577 168 35 0
ODI 0 39 17 288 594 417 46 0
CDI 0 3 7 136 1150 876 429 23
VCDI 0 0 0 13 889 4411 23618 66875
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69128 14314 153 895 423 61 6 0
OW 64 382 47 391 361 25 12 0
VODI 0 199 39 279 747 68 15 0
ODI 0 24 10 201 926 367 21 0
CDI 0 7 2 66 1067 1507 457 8
VCDI 0 0 0 43 535 5401 25197 63600
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68584 14914 167 884 390 51 5 0
OW 61 333 60 459 366 20 11 0
VODI 0 105 32 368 799 87 18 0
ODI 0 4 1 176 992 331 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 1024 1636 476 7
VCDI 0 0 0 37 747 5020 26620 62172
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68584 14955 170 900 387 52 4 0
OW 61 289 59 446 351 39 10 0
VODI 0 105 29 355 760 79 19 0
ODI 0 7 2 190 1015 322 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 1052 1595 538 8
VCDI 0 0 0 36 753 5058 26558 62171

Date: 2022-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69202 14174 144 856 544 41 0 0
OW 64 421 45 342 429 44 0 0
VODI 0 138 33 341 732 204 7 0
ODI 0 13 9 199 698 635 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 1169 1405 365 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 760 5460 27060 61438
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69204 14234 143 901 550 42 0 0
OW 62 373 50 310 427 47 0 0
VODI 0 122 29 355 717 256 7 0
ODI 0 17 9 167 751 581 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1113 1331 356 5
VCDI 0 0 0 1 774 5532 27068 61441

Date: 2022-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69492 14062 120 713 256 62 0 0
OW 61 529 75 485 262 20 2 0
VODI 0 121 47 533 667 112 24 0
ODI 0 5 6 114 1342 364 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 831 1825 411 25
VCDI 0 0 0 10 306 5248 29758 59093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69492 14124 152 933 368 77 3 0
OW 61 373 39 377 345 36 11 0
VODI 0 199 38 280 790 188 29 0
ODI 0 19 17 201 626 442 68 0
CDI 0 2 2 75 905 1087 408 45
VCDI 0 0 0 15 630 5801 29717 59073

Date: 2022-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69715 13950 122 648 313 49 0 0
OW 61 504 65 439 272 38 6 0
VODI 0 195 55 455 663 151 25 0
ODI 0 4 5 175 788 361 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 877 1678 444 18
VCDI 0 0 0 9 498 5735 29303 59321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69715 13896 144 789 434 76 3 0
OW 61 422 35 381 334 56 15 0
VODI 0 243 35 303 686 241 41 0
ODI 0 66 23 151 571 512 64 0
CDI 0 26 8 98 764 1192 422 75
VCDI 0 0 2 67 622 5935 29276 59264

Date: 2022-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69289 14364 150 769 373 51 0 0
OW 60 384 51 539 480 65 3 0
VODI 0 117 32 361 848 179 38 0
ODI 0 6 6 113 703 419 38 0
CDI 0 0 2 70 887 1530 424 25
VCDI 0 0 0 8 471 5895 28307 59991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69289 14275 150 975 496 89 7 0
OW 60 360 35 303 380 67 16 0
VODI 0 201 33 266 788 198 51 0
ODI 0 35 20 152 558 572 68 0
CDI 0 0 3 147 839 1159 477 129
VCDI 0 0 0 17 701 6054 28191 59887


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