Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-04-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67555 15171 159 679 314 108 31 0
OW 52 565 60 523 354 43 26 0
VODI 0 196 58 431 616 162 44 0
ODI 0 37 17 239 676 410 99 0
CDI 0 11 1 90 899 947 387 14
VCDI 0 23 3 74 1392 5943 27566 61073
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67760 15050 155 758 378 116 36 0
OW 52 537 66 454 319 76 35 0
VODI 0 252 50 339 570 209 54 0
ODI 0 34 27 266 522 409 138 0
CDI 0 5 4 150 785 834 390 7
VCDI 0 1 1 53 1280 5643 27005 62228
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67866 15363 166 684 217 80 27 0
OW 53 393 81 488 280 32 20 0
VODI 0 124 56 482 575 71 34 0
ODI 0 9 8 320 820 300 30 0
CDI 0 1 1 76 974 1297 306 52
VCDI 0 0 0 64 990 5160 25310 64238
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67607 15354 171 815 325 105 41 0
OW 54 376 70 439 339 58 25 0
VODI 0 154 43 389 599 132 42 0
ODI 0 40 10 278 614 399 48 0
CDI 0 9 4 97 851 1139 338 99
VCDI 0 0 0 90 1050 5128 25571 64145
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67607 15389 189 932 353 113 41 0
OW 54 343 59 366 346 56 26 0
VODI 0 155 32 347 585 127 41 0
ODI 0 34 14 255 626 365 47 0
CDI 0 12 4 108 894 1174 339 96
VCDI 0 0 0 100 974 5126 25571 64148

Date: 2022-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68525 14291 149 766 450 88 36 0
OW 56 397 62 363 383 64 24 0
VODI 0 180 39 412 527 223 44 0
ODI 0 33 13 235 566 466 51 0
CDI 0 6 8 121 1003 984 473 44
VCDI 0 0 0 4 808 4806 24934 65414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68525 14312 159 817 486 88 35 0
OW 56 373 52 307 365 61 24 0
VODI 0 176 36 406 503 228 39 0
ODI 0 36 14 220 583 459 49 0
CDI 0 10 10 134 995 1082 485 51
VCDI 0 0 0 17 805 4713 24930 65407

Date: 2022-04-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69014 14260 132 674 333 76 6 0
OW 61 453 62 514 297 26 12 0
VODI 0 206 50 438 701 53 15 0
ODI 0 21 18 249 1000 339 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 1219 1391 295 30
VCDI 0 0 0 11 502 4567 24340 65578
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69014 14027 128 774 507 94 20 0
OW 61 524 39 283 331 49 17 0
VODI 0 297 56 360 510 201 32 0
ODI 0 86 28 302 544 461 55 0
CDI 0 6 11 199 1095 751 465 3
VCDI 0 0 0 59 1065 4896 24093 65605

Date: 2022-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68490 15024 172 962 408 52 4 0
OW 63 328 55 403 359 22 9 0
VODI 0 137 30 355 762 83 21 0
ODI 0 28 2 194 956 347 24 0
CDI 0 4 6 63 1049 1559 431 0
VCDI 0 9 3 61 681 5783 23872 64237
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68484 14536 159 892 490 85 27 0
OW 65 466 40 289 369 32 24 0
VODI 4 306 46 292 604 234 31 0
ODI 0 139 11 259 637 402 75 0
CDI 0 58 3 186 1040 964 486 21
VCDI 0 25 9 120 1075 6129 23718 64216

Date: 2022-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68547 14762 158 909 478 53 0 0
OW 63 365 45 403 425 29 15 0
VODI 0 131 31 320 772 143 19 0
ODI 0 8 7 170 835 494 47 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 1083 1534 430 5
VCDI 0 0 0 25 720 5125 27074 61781
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68530 14252 140 868 511 72 23 0
OW 67 470 44 279 411 48 25 0
VODI 10 290 28 301 626 310 45 0
ODI 3 194 19 187 583 541 117 0
CDI 0 58 9 139 973 1090 521 27
VCDI 0 2 1 95 1209 5317 26854 61759


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