Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-03-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68241 13683 164 1106 787 192 7 0 OW 70 674 43 339 415 162 10 0 VODI 7 307 47 395 517 316 4 0 ODI 0 138 13 271 641 471 7 0 CDI 0 128 16 152 1033 1285 219 20 VCDI 0 704 60 421 1738 8271 25365 58609	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67858 13502 171 1057 920 313 0 0 OW 52 763 31 309 354 303 1 0 VODI 0 366 39 334 535 378 26 0 ODI 0 157 27 199 583 479 66 0 CDI 0 155 14 163 903 1674 247 56 VCDI 0 591 61 458 1239 6744 24151 61769	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-22:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69026 13538 159 909 590 89 1 0 OW 53 541 55 494 297 70 0 0 VODI 0 275 40 526 594 170 0 0 ODI 0 168 32 296 737 323 76 0 CDI 0 217 30 207 966 1222 199 12 VCDI 0 384 27 330 1168 7819 21455 63953	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-24:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68471 13747 158 816 578 111 0 0 OW 52 602 72 558 290 136 0 0 VODI 0 262 38 576 563 221 5 0 ODI 0 123 14 218 626 415 61 0 CDI 0 86 10 174 749 1060 291 32 VCDI 0 336 42 379 1210 8295 24894 60777	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68471 13848 177 905 596 121 0 0 OW 52 519 53 512 320 120 0 0 VODI 0 248 39 550 607 211 0 0 ODI 0 127 14 212 596 427 47 1 CDI 0 86 13 180 719 1072 320 30 VCDI 0 328 38 362 1178 8287 24884 60778

Date: 2022-03-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68075 13797 164 800 643 177 0 0 OW 53 568 51 415 398 159 10 0 VODI 0 276 38 413 628 263 30 0 ODI 0 77 22 253 652 501 64 0 CDI 0 42 5 130 640 1274 350 11 VCDI 0 218 37 355 1223 7752 25760 60724	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68075 13872 175 858 688 188 2 0 OW 53 485 37 378 373 142 13 0 VODI 0 281 35 383 647 269 20 0 ODI 0 92 25 257 650 515 60 0 CDI 0 64 11 137 593 1267 380 14 VCDI 0 184 34 353 1233 7745 25739 60721

Date: 2022-03-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67544 14677 137 726 336 70 21 0 OW 52 683 72 515 292 57 33 0 VODI 0 255 50 657 623 115 32 0 ODI 0 67 14 226 910 373 94 0 CDI 0 19 1 90 863 1401 385 31 VCDI 0 100 23 212 1126 5824 23914 64428	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67543 14674 146 948 609 146 54 0 OW 53 504 54 348 346 130 42 0 VODI 0 282 36 418 481 248 84 0 ODI 0 177 25 244 481 334 174 0 CDI 0 70 13 208 672 880 313 113 VCDI 0 94 23 260 1561 6102 23812 64346

Date: 2022-03-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67394 15147 155 732 321 75 35 0 OW 52 603 77 554 339 50 31 0 VODI 0 175 63 475 668 147 44 0 ODI 0 38 10 286 620 398 155 0 CDI 0 22 1 79 971 978 455 36 VCDI 0 43 7 258 1491 5745 22580 65738	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67394 15013 148 826 635 230 85 0 OW 52 546 65 311 275 101 87 0 VODI 0 277 55 459 452 197 150 0 ODI 0 111 30 309 510 301 145 0 CDI 0 36 8 192 764 776 360 10 VCDI 0 45 7 287 1774 5788 22473 65764

Date: 2022-04-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67555 15171 159 679 314 108 31 0 OW 52 565 60 523 354 43 26 0 VODI 0 196 58 431 616 162 44 0 ODI 0 37 17 239 676 410 99 0 CDI 0 11 1 90 899 947 387 14 VCDI 0 23 3 74 1392 5943 27566 61073	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67555 14835 140 711 759 316 82 0 OW 52 588 65 281 288 152 59 0 VODI 0 366 43 448 404 266 106 0 ODI 0 132 34 324 486 286 136 0 CDI 0 59 12 194 768 739 447 21 VCDI 0 23 4 78 1546 5854 27323 61066

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