Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66760 14230 147 810 442 154 86 0
OW 55 510 53 384 329 40 35 0
VODI 0 280 44 351 607 76 51 0
ODI 0 117 17 188 603 184 52 0
CDI 0 82 19 142 700 832 217 16
VCDI 0 140 25 229 1099 5711 19979 71252
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66427 14360 164 998 585 119 58 0
OW 55 497 62 407 316 22 36 0
VODI 0 266 29 404 546 56 44 0
ODI 0 113 20 219 638 137 43 0
CDI 0 37 17 307 874 758 140 0
VCDI 0 93 10 200 1870 6219 17923 71979
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65985 14621 145 1010 593 114 26 0
OW 54 557 74 462 379 55 23 0
VODI 0 178 54 526 652 116 22 0
ODI 0 30 18 261 769 267 31 0
CDI 0 11 4 96 1047 1274 207 8
VCDI 0 60 11 160 1107 5578 17744 72719
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66929 14414 143 853 557 126 24 0
OW 54 658 55 312 322 40 19 0
VODI 0 391 50 399 464 83 26 0
ODI 0 135 29 275 484 156 37 0
CDI 0 64 17 238 885 668 112 4
VCDI 0 113 21 353 1775 6183 17308 72272
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66929 14465 147 865 584 127 25 0
OW 54 627 51 303 274 35 18 0
VODI 0 378 53 418 444 80 19 0
ODI 0 130 26 269 529 139 38 0
CDI 0 63 17 218 893 647 98 1
VCDI 0 112 21 357 1763 6228 17328 72275

Date: 2022-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67443 14292 117 740 542 92 43 0
OW 55 672 58 252 359 41 25 0
VODI 0 429 56 293 445 103 37 0
ODI 0 162 29 263 449 209 48 0
CDI 0 90 19 267 752 711 101 0
VCDI 0 448 49 532 1548 7128 19218 68931
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67444 14350 126 752 569 92 46 0
OW 54 637 50 232 319 44 26 0
VODI 0 399 56 334 450 94 31 0
ODI 0 157 30 249 485 208 42 0
CDI 0 91 16 243 762 702 125 3
VCDI 0 459 50 537 1510 7144 19202 68928

Date: 2022-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68884 13951 119 741 271 46 0 0
OW 75 649 93 428 188 45 0 0
VODI 6 245 65 594 585 82 4 0
ODI 0 50 15 290 712 190 9 0
CDI 0 54 6 104 1023 869 44 6
VCDI 0 456 57 431 1346 8092 17947 68276
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68904 13394 119 767 418 102 0 0
OW 61 768 48 279 237 51 7 0
VODI 0 458 80 397 362 115 13 0
ODI 0 157 29 361 412 170 22 0
CDI 0 90 18 282 892 708 124 15
VCDI 0 538 61 502 1804 8178 17838 68267

Date: 2022-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68380 14122 167 1009 588 142 0 0
OW 66 627 50 376 357 92 0 0
VODI 4 219 47 439 559 186 6 0
ODI 0 79 17 237 710 231 21 0
CDI 0 94 6 108 1014 916 95 9
VCDI 0 667 50 415 1897 9077 18843 65126
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68389 13602 143 985 726 230 4 0
OW 61 761 40 227 308 67 16 0
VODI 0 412 51 398 391 197 27 0
ODI 0 173 36 300 518 208 32 0
CDI 0 113 16 231 1116 865 110 23
VCDI 0 747 51 443 2066 9077 18776 65112

Date: 2022-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68241 13683 164 1106 787 192 7 0
OW 70 674 43 339 415 162 10 0
VODI 7 307 47 395 517 316 4 0
ODI 0 138 13 271 641 471 7 0
CDI 0 128 16 152 1033 1285 219 20
VCDI 0 704 60 421 1738 8271 25365 58609
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68240 13447 146 1049 871 260 11 0
OW 71 693 39 250 341 189 8 0
VODI 7 436 51 409 371 344 16 0
ODI 0 208 30 330 578 398 23 0
CDI 0 111 19 230 1055 1140 231 60
VCDI 0 739 58 416 1915 8366 25323 58569


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