Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-02-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67610 13477 147 730 435 108 23 0 OW 68 647 49 315 279 67 19 0 VODI 8 434 42 328 453 129 25 0 ODI 0 234 27 197 467 205 42 1 CDI 0 130 17 191 611 458 85 32 VCDI 0 224 26 229 1579 6061 23418 67421	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67500 13290 134 795 684 148 0 0 OW 77 523 56 375 299 153 3 0 VODI 10 367 30 279 470 250 17 0 ODI 0 194 25 172 506 270 41 0 CDI 0 157 11 139 653 800 94 34 VCDI 0 317 40 309 1647 6548 23266 66365	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66963 14181 140 751 529 161 19 0 OW 56 507 65 392 302 58 10 0 VODI 0 236 44 412 504 154 26 0 ODI 0 116 8 179 617 254 58 0 CDI 0 100 10 124 760 755 261 39 VCDI 0 185 27 205 1242 6512 22175 67911	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66877 14171 146 701 501 162 58 0 OW 55 517 55 388 298 68 23 0 VODI 0 257 45 436 507 106 40 0 ODI 0 121 12 260 565 221 63 1 CDI 0 77 8 153 747 826 140 31 VCDI 0 186 26 340 1228 6168 20672 69792	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66877 14174 144 705 523 168 59 0 OW 55 508 48 367 283 60 22 0 VODI 0 272 51 458 484 100 38 0 ODI 0 118 15 246 571 202 63 0 CDI 0 71 8 160 764 820 134 33 VCDI 0 186 26 342 1221 6201 20680 69791

Date: 2022-03-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66629 14374 166 873 445 128 77 0 OW 55 497 54 416 291 18 41 0 VODI 0 275 41 355 587 55 52 0 ODI 0 118 17 189 641 158 51 0 CDI 0 50 18 242 884 763 167 4 VCDI 0 115 16 138 1479 6061 19563 70945	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66629 14407 167 849 456 129 84 0 OW 55 474 48 420 285 18 36 0 VODI 0 269 44 377 561 50 47 0 ODI 0 111 20 207 637 170 50 0 CDI 0 52 18 233 882 719 171 2 VCDI 0 116 15 127 1506 6097 19563 70947

Date: 2022-03-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66151 14542 171 967 613 108 30 0 OW 54 513 62 527 345 39 15 0 VODI 0 149 46 559 649 77 16 1 ODI 0 30 15 270 946 180 26 5 CDI 0 9 2 155 1053 1147 117 18 VCDI 0 57 11 109 1341 6200 17072 72651	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66150 14301 164 1060 744 136 45 0 OW 55 566 47 381 323 63 23 0 VODI 0 275 50 383 520 105 36 0 ODI 0 78 23 285 654 163 62 0 CDI 0 21 10 272 1016 900 183 4 VCDI 0 59 13 206 1690 6384 16927 72671

Date: 2022-03-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66488 14543 143 814 486 123 32 0 OW 55 662 73 458 321 36 18 0 VODI 0 242 64 495 542 52 24 0 ODI 0 66 21 298 711 121 35 0 CDI 0 38 9 150 1183 678 135 6 VCDI 0 83 13 197 1428 6053 16226 73926	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 66488 14242 148 952 616 148 65 0 OW 55 682 41 311 316 46 38 0 VODI 0 408 61 363 526 71 54 0 ODI 0 150 34 280 478 175 64 0 CDI 0 69 20 220 966 683 220 26 VCDI 0 83 19 286 1769 5940 16029 73906

Date: 2022-03-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67193 14329 126 835 579 94 21 0 OW 54 695 54 273 344 45 18 0 VODI 0 508 42 318 437 94 28 0 ODI 0 181 44 239 453 187 36 0 CDI 0 93 23 292 761 745 81 20 VCDI 0 340 34 587 1595 6332 17801 71117	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67193 13638 141 855 729 170 61 0 OW 54 743 18 216 317 64 33 0 VODI 0 629 51 286 322 159 50 0 ODI 0 343 26 205 387 206 53 0 CDI 0 328 34 262 650 745 117 47 VCDI 0 465 53 720 1764 6153 17671 71090

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