Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68703 14242 141 791 360 36 0 0
OW 63 810 48 285 246 71 0 0
VODI 0 569 43 371 428 109 0 0
ODI 0 298 25 252 589 157 11 0
CDI 0 218 10 277 1028 700 108 94
VCDI 0 467 46 442 1956 6395 23962 62697
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68100 14303 151 834 405 41 0 0
OW 56 688 64 358 278 70 0 0
VODI 0 496 50 461 467 95 0 0
ODI 0 282 6 266 533 245 10 0
CDI 0 231 21 221 907 973 175 87
VCDI 0 490 39 336 1686 7274 22428 63921
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67085 15169 176 851 403 72 17 0
OW 53 566 67 380 277 44 20 0
VODI 0 329 37 523 467 128 21 0
ODI 0 264 16 285 641 201 66 0
CDI 0 167 10 165 920 982 182 14
VCDI 0 293 30 341 1330 6953 22116 65387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67043 14792 189 932 417 74 23 0
OW 54 513 55 477 305 49 26 0
VODI 0 284 27 421 521 153 29 0
ODI 0 144 11 208 582 185 49 0
CDI 0 214 18 171 921 668 178 11
VCDI 0 455 38 414 1341 6608 21964 66484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67043 14857 197 1020 465 73 25 0
OW 54 457 50 428 307 52 22 0
VODI 0 266 25 389 500 156 29 0
ODI 0 138 12 203 561 178 56 0
CDI 0 243 15 168 911 682 184 12
VCDI 0 441 39 415 1343 6596 21953 66483

Date: 2022-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67164 14452 173 886 322 54 26 0
OW 54 558 53 436 307 43 22 0
VODI 0 358 38 365 610 69 25 0
ODI 0 169 14 206 606 144 49 0
CDI 0 114 21 173 814 617 143 38
VCDI 0 367 32 394 1424 7210 23475 65023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67164 14503 182 966 370 61 27 0
OW 54 522 51 409 320 36 19 0
VODI 0 332 32 338 583 73 23 0
ODI 0 172 13 181 595 136 52 0
CDI 0 124 19 152 798 589 154 40
VCDI 0 365 34 414 1417 7242 23465 65021

Date: 2022-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67360 13753 161 803 329 84 15 0
OW 113 524 60 505 299 42 20 0
VODI 8 249 49 470 636 90 21 0
ODI 0 98 4 176 800 205 23 0
CDI 0 63 3 76 849 1046 136 85
VCDI 0 186 26 191 742 7027 24497 65224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67410 13765 175 1007 498 109 28 0
OW 65 406 41 395 397 74 25 0
VODI 6 285 28 265 589 141 37 0
ODI 0 122 27 146 540 260 54 4
CDI 0 100 3 157 603 801 197 134
VCDI 0 195 29 251 1028 7109 24371 65171

Date: 2022-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67487 13594 169 794 385 110 6 0
OW 71 448 47 432 346 65 14 0
VODI 12 273 21 315 612 110 18 0
ODI 0 136 20 145 594 175 37 11
CDI 0 93 10 133 569 856 214 79
VCDI 0 138 23 256 935 6797 24060 66438
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67495 13465 174 885 539 168 13 0
OW 66 405 36 374 458 98 22 0
VODI 9 299 21 263 503 155 45 0
ODI 0 184 18 105 516 207 54 44
CDI 0 146 16 118 493 867 305 68
VCDI 0 183 25 330 932 6618 23910 66416

Date: 2022-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67610 13477 147 730 435 108 23 0
OW 68 647 49 315 279 67 19 0
VODI 8 434 42 328 453 129 25 0
ODI 0 234 27 197 467 205 42 1
CDI 0 130 17 191 611 458 85 32
VCDI 0 224 26 229 1579 6061 23418 67421
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67623 13512 168 860 617 169 48 0
OW 63 519 34 273 348 131 33 0
VODI 0 439 33 237 433 234 58 0
ODI 0 241 20 152 437 195 90 0
CDI 0 173 25 188 543 518 176 32
VCDI 0 262 28 280 1446 5781 23207 67422


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