Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67555 15224 189 971 439 41 9 0
OW 60 486 59 433 381 41 11 0
VODI 0 253 39 424 507 102 15 0
ODI 0 106 18 188 589 215 30 0
CDI 0 62 12 160 800 731 254 29
VCDI 0 81 12 277 1641 6604 23806 64194
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68281 14684 160 839 411 43 2 0
OW 58 551 59 351 318 69 8 0
VODI 0 368 34 368 432 99 13 0
ODI 0 210 11 185 433 161 12 0
CDI 0 180 19 187 603 488 78 12
VCDI 0 258 29 331 1424 6583 19664 69032
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68871 14331 164 885 437 40 0 0
OW 66 546 41 336 342 75 0 0
VODI 4 378 22 279 482 113 6 0
ODI 0 208 18 151 458 216 11 0
CDI 0 177 32 155 650 812 181 9
VCDI 0 281 29 372 2010 6617 21621 65622
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68752 14282 155 815 453 44 0 0
OW 63 762 48 280 267 81 0 0
VODI 0 518 33 322 422 110 4 0
ODI 0 247 20 223 482 158 20 0
CDI 0 186 17 227 798 629 71 66
VCDI 0 373 36 401 2279 6206 22688 64510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68750 14371 152 823 463 44 0 0
OW 65 744 42 266 270 87 0 0
VODI 0 483 47 331 436 105 6 0
ODI 0 240 16 249 458 179 18 0
CDI 0 208 19 222 833 633 84 61
VCDI 0 322 33 377 2241 6180 22675 64515

Date: 2022-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68718 14047 147 773 334 34 0 0
OW 55 800 59 327 237 48 0 0
VODI 0 532 43 457 421 84 3 0
ODI 0 284 21 252 618 200 8 0
CDI 0 197 14 289 883 949 134 99
VCDI 0 487 41 361 1639 7076 23108 63269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68718 14150 140 819 364 39 0 0
OW 55 802 68 303 240 52 0 0
VODI 0 471 43 434 435 89 3 0
ODI 0 290 19 288 588 226 10 0
CDI 0 180 17 258 892 959 167 99
VCDI 0 454 38 357 1613 7026 23073 63269

Date: 2022-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67458 14960 178 835 372 64 1 0
OW 53 533 81 444 264 41 6 0
VODI 0 369 30 560 600 100 6 0
ODI 0 197 19 228 866 237 33 0
CDI 0 159 7 133 918 1425 102 42
VCDI 0 274 28 291 1165 7621 22018 64330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67458 14494 174 924 543 81 5 0
OW 53 672 66 341 319 76 8 0
VODI 0 395 33 409 513 154 9 0
ODI 0 254 13 177 559 302 23 0
CDI 0 230 21 245 653 1078 122 68
VCDI 0 447 36 395 1598 7797 21999 64304

Date: 2022-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67289 14819 179 893 366 55 28 0
OW 53 549 59 463 274 32 21 0
VODI 0 264 31 452 528 121 23 0
ODI 0 193 15 234 626 146 70 0
CDI 0 270 16 174 852 717 157 11
VCDI 0 348 34 378 1555 7488 21265 66000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67288 14466 158 900 530 80 42 0
OW 54 626 64 312 265 75 27 0
VODI 0 367 36 485 473 149 30 0
ODI 0 234 10 212 532 229 59 0
CDI 0 227 17 192 722 735 155 45
VCDI 0 523 49 493 1679 7291 21251 65966

Date: 2022-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66917 14727 192 947 399 58 24 0
OW 54 508 57 445 354 43 24 0
VODI 0 320 26 359 627 94 32 0
ODI 0 143 13 168 606 171 56 0
CDI 0 143 23 175 826 788 188 37
VCDI 0 405 35 432 1163 6605 22126 66738
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66917 14483 177 929 501 86 35 0
OW 54 556 50 329 295 74 21 0
VODI 0 364 38 360 551 139 38 0
ODI 0 201 18 205 490 218 68 0
CDI 0 187 13 167 758 703 292 17
VCDI 0 455 50 536 1380 6539 21996 66758


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