Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-01-21:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69503 15340 156 814 389 85 17 0 OW 60 452 57 378 285 25 16 0 VODI 0 198 33 369 488 99 11 0 ODI 0 83 20 222 533 221 1 0 CDI 0 62 5 158 712 821 74 14 VCDI 0 92 11 178 1118 6068 24728 63152	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-23:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69351 15079 178 845 369 175 10 0 OW 61 508 40 427 250 38 29 0 VODI 0 304 38 367 414 101 48 0 ODI 0 148 26 215 539 187 31 0 CDI 0 113 19 223 801 796 77 32 VCDI 0 131 26 399 1871 6536 22102 64144	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-25:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 69723 15098 161 837 308 89 0 0 OW 83 522 45 373 187 39 0 0 VODI 13 319 45 415 435 53 1 0 ODI 0 165 23 306 601 138 12 0 CDI 0 170 7 219 1026 944 78 20 VCDI 0 466 36 446 2010 8164 24819 58652	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-27:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68833 15177 173 898 416 72 15 0 OW 61 521 42 331 258 50 11 0 VODI 0 359 51 370 523 94 22 0 ODI 0 182 14 263 575 192 37 0 CDI 0 188 13 212 852 789 198 114 VCDI 0 762 51 429 2362 8076 23127 60335	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68833 15192 180 914 446 82 12 0 OW 61 461 37 308 233 45 11 0 VODI 0 340 45 380 525 98 24 0 ODI 0 199 17 271 572 215 36 0 CDI 0 199 11 209 852 816 198 120 VCDI 0 798 54 421 2358 8017 23129 60329

Date: 2022-01-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68466 14967 174 927 464 85 35 0 OW 61 558 36 295 282 45 23 0 VODI 0 357 60 306 482 79 23 0 ODI 0 123 30 294 607 233 34 0 CDI 0 128 4 253 888 656 151 61 VCDI 0 186 16 845 2409 7484 22379 62542	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 68466 15031 178 940 484 96 31 0 OW 61 471 34 270 274 40 22 0 VODI 0 344 57 310 464 88 26 0 ODI 0 105 31 308 630 228 34 0 CDI 0 117 3 227 898 709 159 71 VCDI 0 251 17 865 2382 7421 22373 62532

Date: 2022-01-31:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67999 15807 199 841 338 53 3 0 OW 61 340 78 561 225 31 8 0 VODI 0 138 25 515 579 73 18 0 ODI 0 66 9 228 754 205 27 0 CDI 0 42 5 82 871 774 114 3 VCDI 0 144 10 103 1466 7194 21850 65209	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67999 15460 189 862 438 79 5 0 OW 61 396 60 393 231 49 11 0 VODI 0 245 44 418 360 114 17 0 ODI 0 104 8 262 459 211 31 0 CDI 0 86 4 178 571 652 95 4 VCDI 0 246 21 217 2174 7225 21861 65208

Date: 2022-02-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67704 15444 191 993 426 42 20 0 OW 61 420 60 443 349 32 11 0 VODI 0 215 43 400 578 109 12 0 ODI 0 65 19 220 532 212 28 0 CDI 0 40 6 129 748 678 170 4 VCDI 0 228 21 157 1544 6701 23228 64765	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67704 15218 183 1013 548 65 35 0 OW 61 396 51 362 304 69 19 0 VODI 0 253 41 354 455 136 25 0 ODI 0 128 20 215 438 183 42 0 CDI 0 84 16 153 718 623 171 4 VCDI 0 333 29 245 1714 6698 23177 64765

Date: 2022-02-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67555 15224 189 971 439 41 9 0 OW 60 486 59 433 381 41 11 0 VODI 0 253 39 424 507 102 15 0 ODI 0 106 18 188 589 215 30 0 CDI 0 62 12 160 800 731 254 29 VCDI 0 81 12 277 1641 6604 23806 64194	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 67555 14920 186 994 523 68 19 0 OW 60 403 47 367 340 59 18 0 VODI 0 312 30 362 434 117 22 0 ODI 0 186 17 201 424 168 71 7 CDI 0 151 23 122 802 593 296 31 VCDI 0 240 26 407 1834 6729 23699 64185

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