Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2022-01-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71351 14804 121 481 294 114 116 0
OW 75 623 53 331 112 10 13 0
VODI 0 379 71 486 424 40 14 0
ODI 0 75 22 304 503 67 29 0
CDI 0 23 8 227 643 287 98 0
VCDI 0 12 4 117 1077 2939 7793 4960
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71125 14373 152 556 350 143 94 0
OW 60 626 44 304 198 61 8 0
VODI 0 442 43 362 337 96 8 0
ODI 0 169 25 264 383 137 22 0
CDI 0 58 19 215 513 278 64 0
VCDI 0 38 9 222 1073 3630 7744 4855
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70415 14944 179 641 340 93 79 0
OW 60 403 48 412 202 31 21 0
VODI 0 188 24 372 474 79 29 0
ODI 0 60 10 240 596 228 33 0
CDI 0 29 9 78 704 444 91 0
VCDI 0 1 6 121 521 2543 8970 5382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69743 15429 146 590 335 107 82 0
OW 60 488 49 339 196 23 23 0
VODI 0 250 48 385 374 86 29 0
ODI 0 74 16 213 516 211 24 0
CDI 0 39 12 153 572 663 90 0
VCDI 0 10 4 161 836 3178 8540 5006
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69743 15487 156 637 366 112 84 0
OW 60 442 46 325 183 28 19 0
VODI 0 233 41 355 368 94 25 0
ODI 0 71 16 209 495 158 30 0
CDI 0 41 10 153 575 633 80 0
VCDI 0 16 6 162 842 3243 8550 5006

Date: 2022-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69421 15093 179 860 435 118 25 0
OW 61 380 45 427 282 34 23 0
VODI 0 188 34 317 449 115 30 0
ODI 0 72 15 160 515 262 9 0
CDI 0 35 9 152 759 636 51 0
VCDI 0 4 4 87 1140 3431 7880 5363
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69421 15180 193 925 467 121 28 0
OW 61 297 35 382 283 41 22 0
VODI 0 179 33 309 435 127 26 0
ODI 0 66 12 153 468 229 12 0
CDI 0 36 8 149 768 561 49 0
VCDI 0 14 5 85 1159 3517 7881 5363

Date: 2022-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69369 15420 150 718 242 156 0 0
OW 60 425 53 459 144 26 7 0
VODI 0 182 48 469 441 41 13 0
ODI 0 75 16 275 675 122 14 0
CDI 0 41 12 163 983 693 102 0
VCDI 0 130 13 220 1500 3661 8715 3267
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69369 14963 144 770 324 193 19 0
OW 60 547 48 355 227 32 21 0
VODI 0 275 38 393 375 110 47 0
ODI 0 169 11 201 523 143 47 0
CDI 0 120 12 159 729 575 44 0
VCDI 0 199 39 426 1807 3646 8673 3267

Date: 2022-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69194 14913 179 900 343 93 36 0
OW 60 458 32 342 237 18 27 0
VODI 0 273 37 346 445 45 32 0
ODI 0 88 27 235 492 139 32 0
CDI 0 69 5 199 686 664 124 0
VCDI 0 385 18 275 1662 4129 7081 4780
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69193 14469 166 915 435 111 87 0
OW 61 571 27 249 274 37 26 0
VODI 0 404 41 305 400 116 58 0
ODI 0 156 22 214 405 151 51 0
CDI 0 130 15 226 594 547 86 0
VCDI 0 456 27 388 1757 4126 7024 4780

Date: 2022-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68593 14899 172 953 402 55 24 0
OW 61 448 38 318 271 44 11 0
VODI 0 267 46 350 435 122 17 0
ODI 0 86 24 280 469 147 30 0
CDI 0 34 6 189 869 368 98 0
VCDI 0 357 23 280 1849 3454 7794 5217
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68593 14489 162 980 509 107 32 0
OW 61 572 30 208 295 28 28 0
VODI 0 384 49 338 393 162 33 0
ODI 0 140 27 239 410 183 23 0
CDI 0 99 10 185 674 415 44 0
VCDI 0 407 31 420 2014 3295 7814 5217


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