Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71351 14854 123 487 294 114 116 0
OW 75 663 56 340 112 10 13 0
VODI 0 430 74 504 424 40 14 0
ODI 0 101 24 320 514 76 29 0
CDI 0 39 9 245 662 364 149 1
VCDI 0 38 6 182 1273 5524 21563 65835
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71125 14418 158 562 350 143 94 0
OW 60 648 47 325 198 61 8 0
VODI 0 483 44 389 337 96 8 0
ODI 0 219 25 280 386 151 22 0
CDI 0 97 22 220 558 402 116 34
VCDI 0 148 15 344 1290 6563 24324 62278
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70415 15007 187 691 340 93 79 0
OW 60 433 49 456 202 31 21 0
VODI 0 227 25 398 475 79 29 0
ODI 0 90 10 249 597 232 34 0
CDI 0 58 11 81 740 551 136 7
VCDI 0 104 10 267 744 5366 25019 63445
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69743 15477 151 609 352 107 82 0
OW 60 499 49 369 219 23 23 0
VODI 0 271 52 417 393 86 29 0
ODI 0 98 18 226 527 223 25 0
CDI 0 68 14 160 578 818 117 20
VCDI 0 107 13 255 1185 6257 23653 63675
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69743 15536 161 657 384 112 84 0
OW 60 452 47 345 204 28 19 0
VODI 0 253 42 394 385 94 25 0
ODI 0 94 20 223 509 174 30 0
CDI 0 70 11 159 583 796 108 20
VCDI 0 115 16 258 1189 6310 23663 63675

Date: 2022-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69421 15135 183 877 447 118 25 0
OW 61 395 46 444 296 34 23 0
VODI 0 203 36 338 480 115 30 0
ODI 0 87 17 182 537 264 9 0
CDI 0 56 13 166 865 702 74 11
VCDI 0 85 6 129 1479 6531 23166 63962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69421 15225 197 943 482 121 28 0
OW 61 311 36 398 295 41 22 0
VODI 0 192 35 328 465 127 26 0
ODI 0 78 14 176 489 236 12 0
CDI 0 59 12 163 872 624 67 11
VCDI 0 96 7 128 1501 6615 23172 63962

Date: 2022-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69369 15648 153 718 242 156 0 0
OW 60 494 58 471 144 26 7 0
VODI 0 254 51 480 442 41 13 0
ODI 0 134 18 308 694 130 16 0
CDI 0 122 16 200 1050 805 208 23
VCDI 0 203 21 313 1865 6807 25350 59938
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69369 15088 144 770 324 193 19 0
OW 60 605 52 359 227 32 21 0
VODI 0 343 40 406 375 110 47 0
ODI 0 220 16 206 538 152 48 0
CDI 0 175 12 175 778 688 138 17
VCDI 0 424 53 574 2195 6790 25321 59944

Date: 2022-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69224 15122 179 900 343 93 36 0
OW 70 554 32 342 237 18 27 0
VODI 2 385 37 373 462 45 32 0
ODI 0 182 28 279 562 162 36 0
CDI 0 181 7 242 806 794 169 54
VCDI 0 652 37 451 2112 7809 21917 62055
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69212 14630 166 915 435 111 87 0
OW 80 660 27 249 274 37 26 0
VODI 4 483 41 322 426 116 58 0
ODI 0 220 22 247 452 172 54 0
CDI 0 200 17 269 691 701 139 44
VCDI 0 883 47 585 2244 7784 21853 62065

Date: 2022-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68593 15101 172 953 402 55 24 0
OW 61 544 38 318 271 44 11 0
VODI 0 370 46 374 435 122 17 0
ODI 0 176 25 363 553 224 37 0
CDI 0 170 10 266 1047 629 250 40
VCDI 0 636 50 513 2581 7364 23321 60842
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68593 14649 162 980 509 107 32 0
OW 61 659 30 208 295 28 28 0
VODI 0 495 49 369 409 181 33 0
ODI 0 225 27 310 481 264 31 0
CDI 0 167 14 252 818 599 168 38
VCDI 0 802 59 668 2777 7259 23368 60844


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