Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72507 14083 171 766 340 101 101 0
OW 77 522 49 322 218 23 26 0
VODI 1 403 26 257 350 53 23 0
ODI 0 188 26 198 350 111 47 0
CDI 0 138 14 218 554 560 107 23
VCDI 0 9 1 176 1218 5268 23938 63485
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72098 14184 157 646 306 86 99 0
OW 75 776 54 300 178 27 21 0
VODI 0 370 42 349 279 54 22 0
ODI 0 226 30 248 303 111 25 0
CDI 0 115 16 209 565 428 98 4
VCDI 0 14 3 147 1047 5445 26578 61313
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72531 14566 170 511 178 50 82 0
OW 74 578 61 451 106 11 14 0
VODI 0 282 40 451 307 25 7 0
ODI 0 104 18 268 470 75 12 0
CDI 0 15 4 142 565 412 55 58
VCDI 0 0 0 56 943 4903 20481 67972
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72077 14546 130 435 257 99 95 0
OW 74 719 83 433 74 5 9 0
VODI 0 406 61 544 324 15 8 0
ODI 0 146 24 302 516 38 15 0
CDI 0 78 10 202 579 335 96 29
VCDI 0 14 6 139 1156 5396 18320 69253
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72077 14595 135 474 267 95 61 0
OW 74 654 70 388 66 11 40 0
VODI 0 418 67 537 317 18 9 0
ODI 0 162 29 305 509 37 18 0
CDI 0 66 7 219 570 338 112 35
VCDI 0 14 6 132 1177 5389 18303 69247

Date: 2022-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70882 14730 145 559 363 147 107 0
OW 76 634 49 340 162 35 7 0
VODI 0 401 58 503 405 91 15 0
ODI 0 119 21 308 490 108 32 0
CDI 0 75 12 242 629 466 182 56
VCDI 0 79 11 269 1109 5634 24569 62928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70882 14842 153 628 407 120 86 0
OW 76 537 46 286 142 75 26 0
VODI 0 369 55 481 356 87 17 0
ODI 0 141 18 307 512 100 37 0
CDI 0 72 17 244 607 477 182 46
VCDI 0 77 7 275 1134 5622 24564 62938

Date: 2022-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70837 14977 190 671 259 72 41 0
OW 60 480 52 431 173 22 19 0
VODI 0 230 36 475 515 35 28 0
ODI 0 71 9 190 713 174 26 0
CDI 0 45 8 88 689 657 83 6
VCDI 0 123 7 228 881 6171 25295 61981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70837 14745 182 700 344 104 68 0
OW 60 456 40 332 179 81 42 0
VODI 0 296 33 349 418 77 24 0
ODI 0 131 21 241 500 179 17 0
CDI 0 92 8 147 639 436 121 15
VCDI 0 206 18 314 1150 6254 25220 61972

Date: 2022-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70225 15249 162 563 307 86 92 0
OW 60 556 56 407 167 24 21 0
VODI 0 289 56 446 307 82 24 0
ODI 0 111 17 318 500 174 35 0
CDI 0 79 10 193 682 488 118 16
VCDI 0 121 13 283 1183 6132 22369 65027
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70225 15010 154 563 398 126 129 0
OW 60 505 45 322 140 111 40 0
VODI 0 374 46 381 235 102 47 0
ODI 0 159 29 282 370 162 60 0
CDI 0 119 14 234 567 337 127 39
VCDI 0 238 26 428 1436 6148 22256 65004

Date: 2022-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69503 15340 156 814 389 85 17 0
OW 60 452 57 378 285 25 16 0
VODI 0 198 33 369 488 99 11 0
ODI 0 83 20 222 533 221 1 0
CDI 0 62 5 158 712 821 74 14
VCDI 0 92 11 178 1118 6068 24728 63152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69503 15147 175 935 451 111 38 0
OW 60 415 27 277 349 134 6 0
VODI 0 262 31 277 444 181 30 0
ODI 0 122 16 167 390 237 20 0
CDI 0 117 12 169 700 709 93 3
VCDI 0 164 21 294 1191 5947 24660 63163


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