Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74004 13837 166 612 380 380 26 0
OW 72 486 44 345 126 21 20 0
VODI 0 289 30 411 383 44 20 0
ODI 0 82 22 347 659 128 19 0
CDI 0 59 1 216 835 462 114 12
VCDI 0 139 18 184 961 3776 17949 69369
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73510 13984 148 485 312 424 76 0
OW 73 595 68 338 91 23 20 0
VODI 0 328 38 401 256 26 22 0
ODI 0 186 16 226 510 47 19 0
CDI 0 87 12 192 851 612 128 10
VCDI 0 157 16 227 1381 4150 21089 65914
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73773 13594 185 759 297 328 109 0
OW 115 423 42 331 139 44 29 0
VODI 11 283 35 351 307 17 23 0
ODI 0 111 7 235 454 50 26 0
CDI 0 75 4 210 728 531 133 61
VCDI 0 23 7 299 1516 5034 23455 62894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72400 14263 181 773 356 189 107 0
OW 78 530 38 315 236 27 31 0
VODI 0 370 38 274 326 64 30 0
ODI 0 162 16 221 369 116 26 0
CDI 0 120 11 174 636 525 139 14
VCDI 0 9 3 166 1529 5464 23366 63356
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72400 14283 180 795 374 197 104 0
OW 77 491 41 296 210 21 33 0
VODI 1 374 33 259 329 60 29 0
ODI 0 167 17 227 348 111 23 0
CDI 0 130 12 168 630 501 153 12
VCDI 0 9 4 178 1561 5495 23357 63358

Date: 2022-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72275 14203 164 700 324 79 104 0
OW 74 609 48 304 217 28 25 0
VODI 0 401 33 296 325 52 23 0
ODI 0 216 23 176 341 118 29 0
CDI 0 109 22 248 467 492 126 33
VCDI 0 5 2 177 958 5086 23678 64458
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72274 14203 164 692 344 82 104 0
OW 75 588 49 306 194 27 23 0
VODI 0 355 31 282 305 48 23 0
ODI 0 252 22 168 331 112 24 0
CDI 0 138 19 235 471 486 139 35
VCDI 0 7 7 218 987 5100 23672 64456

Date: 2022-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72370 14571 166 606 222 70 54 0
OW 74 526 60 437 173 16 15 0
VODI 0 275 44 394 366 49 6 0
ODI 0 135 16 193 495 101 9 0
CDI 0 15 7 129 634 550 85 65
VCDI 0 2 0 36 852 5270 24735 63225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72368 13845 153 597 262 81 73 0
OW 76 743 41 275 174 33 9 0
VODI 0 483 42 327 287 65 8 0
ODI 0 247 30 220 339 156 19 0
CDI 0 187 24 220 492 455 103 48
VCDI 0 19 3 156 1188 5266 24692 63242

Date: 2022-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72366 14551 167 516 196 65 88 0
OW 74 712 75 421 115 5 7 0
VODI 0 311 54 480 331 8 8 0
ODI 0 101 17 283 490 45 8 0
CDI 0 8 4 179 603 418 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 900 5091 19318 68912
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72364 13979 141 467 222 73 101 0
OW 76 627 58 275 120 9 10 0
VODI 0 603 56 407 244 33 5 0
ODI 0 278 37 301 395 75 16 0
CDI 0 144 23 283 515 339 54 23
VCDI 0 52 2 207 1139 5103 19303 68889

Date: 2022-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71351 14854 123 487 294 114 116 0
OW 75 663 56 340 112 10 13 0
VODI 0 430 74 504 424 40 14 0
ODI 0 101 24 320 514 76 29 0
CDI 0 39 9 245 662 364 149 1
VCDI 0 38 6 182 1273 5524 21563 65835
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71366 14396 108 499 346 123 141 0
OW 60 669 59 215 73 12 14 0
VODI 0 500 42 371 222 40 25 0
ODI 0 293 41 319 425 40 29 0
CDI 0 174 22 315 682 188 73 40
VCDI 0 93 20 359 1531 5725 21602 65796


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