Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-12-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 4 25 2 6 27 0
OW 0 253 15 98 88 283 59 0
VODI 0 225 13 127 95 367 39 0
ODI 0 82 12 85 113 362 131 0
CDI 0 34 4 70 102 362 307 0
VCDI 0 31 7 63 56 2431 9797 30042
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 2 8 2 0 3 0
OW 0 115 7 42 43 25 176 0
VODI 0 231 19 173 146 236 209 0
ODI 0 33 8 131 151 228 162 0
CDI 0 22 3 81 102 420 394 1
VCDI 0 0 1 63 214 2934 6116 33316
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 30 5 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 3 69 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 14 307 166 10 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 138 230 101 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 167 192 503 37
VCDI 0 0 0 2 159 1068 9180 33182
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 1 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 32 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 151 132 4 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 130 380 37 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 291 236 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 1072 6009 36991
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 1 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 4 2 33 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 119 136 4 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 144 307 31 20 0
CDI 0 7 3 65 353 246 216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 90 1068 5976 36991

Date: 2022-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 15 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 19 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 298 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 354 414 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 251 1418 7190 35589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 17 4 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 18 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 39 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 275 53 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 326 416 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 288 1406 7159 35589

Date: 2022-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 51 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 177 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 268 569 76 7
VCDI 0 0 0 2 136 1860 9704 32960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 23 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 43 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 84 14 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 234 259 109 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 257 2182 9660 32965

Date: 2022-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 70 18 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 210 176 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 542 2900 8868 32960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 37 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 58 17 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 155 135 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 598 2938 8806 32960

Date: 2022-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 14 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 117 158 10 17
VCDI 0 0 0 39 414 2616 8523 33921
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 33 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 75 121 41 14
VCDI 0 0 0 41 455 2648 8490 33924


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