Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75416 13715 135 542 277 168 128 0
OW 74 743 96 385 232 305 97 0
VODI 0 409 62 533 405 427 50 0
ODI 0 119 16 318 499 500 131 0
CDI 0 62 4 165 643 850 394 3
VCDI 0 97 16 167 947 6884 23467 57567
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75778 13326 111 417 284 272 46 0
OW 72 721 42 270 150 38 198 0
VODI 0 571 66 449 385 304 240 0
ODI 0 118 37 397 387 331 175 0
CDI 0 63 12 257 526 796 439 25
VCDI 0 109 14 236 1119 6354 18318 63595
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74727 14003 159 544 295 330 57 0
OW 72 413 69 420 99 16 10 0
VODI 0 234 43 724 406 35 15 0
ODI 0 53 10 323 622 166 100 0
CDI 0 38 4 141 686 559 590 37
VCDI 0 133 15 139 851 3890 24357 61663
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73980 14068 168 605 358 417 15 0
OW 72 460 62 364 118 16 18 0
VODI 0 223 29 492 399 37 23 0
ODI 0 74 17 301 757 112 37 0
CDI 0 43 6 181 746 558 279 4
VCDI 0 146 16 144 804 3287 18882 68730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73980 14078 171 632 352 414 14 0
OW 72 454 58 323 126 19 20 0
VODI 0 230 34 470 404 38 23 0
ODI 0 53 11 326 672 95 46 0
CDI 0 48 8 190 790 517 274 4
VCDI 0 151 16 146 838 3344 18877 68730

Date: 2022-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73862 13762 167 572 354 355 44 0
OW 75 521 46 333 105 21 19 0
VODI 0 300 22 355 363 36 16 0
ODI 0 138 25 202 683 106 17 0
CDI 0 56 4 183 878 776 122 9
VCDI 0 153 16 165 994 3967 19080 68146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73864 13752 165 611 348 351 50 0
OW 73 513 46 305 119 23 13 0
VODI 0 315 26 353 370 38 17 0
ODI 0 135 21 197 655 117 19 0
CDI 0 57 7 173 830 771 153 10
VCDI 0 158 15 171 1055 3961 19046 68145

Date: 2022-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73382 14507 170 612 262 373 78 0
OW 91 447 67 348 120 62 19 0
VODI 0 237 39 427 278 15 18 0
ODI 0 113 11 214 540 65 17 0
CDI 0 52 6 197 834 794 102 11
VCDI 0 39 5 267 1189 4244 22228 64568
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73400 13992 164 543 327 407 106 0
OW 73 562 47 287 98 37 16 0
VODI 0 365 37 355 202 27 24 0
ODI 0 196 19 249 336 48 33 0
CDI 0 169 21 209 693 449 148 9
VCDI 0 111 10 422 1567 4585 22135 64570

Date: 2022-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73496 13396 171 817 339 278 115 0
OW 133 466 43 303 196 34 32 0
VODI 39 283 26 263 376 22 30 0
ODI 2 173 13 200 413 77 35 0
CDI 0 98 3 180 659 480 162 37
VCDI 0 26 4 203 1598 5777 22412 63638
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73573 13055 161 756 363 305 152 0
OW 96 529 43 279 191 15 32 0
VODI 1 411 24 248 345 32 38 0
ODI 0 219 13 160 366 74 53 0
CDI 0 166 10 181 514 366 202 5
VCDI 0 62 9 342 1802 5876 22309 63670

Date: 2022-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72507 14083 171 766 340 101 101 0
OW 77 522 49 322 218 23 26 0
VODI 1 403 26 257 350 53 23 0
ODI 0 188 26 198 350 111 47 0
CDI 0 138 14 218 554 560 107 23
VCDI 0 9 1 176 1218 5268 23938 63485
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72508 13919 160 728 402 134 161 0
OW 77 606 54 323 199 50 32 0
VODI 0 371 29 270 300 81 43 0
ODI 0 221 18 175 338 123 60 0
CDI 0 195 18 163 535 437 149 49
VCDI 0 31 8 278 1256 5291 23797 63459


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