Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-12-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 276 11 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 29 5 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 2 51 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 33 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 60 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 159 707 5174 30257
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 268 6 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 4 21 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 11 46 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 37 22 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 47 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 175 703 5174 30257

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 148 653 2331
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 148 653 2331

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 3 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 203 2136 7584
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 195 2129 7586

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 453 5187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 445 5187

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5326

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 43 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 19 0 0 3 44 7 0
VCDI 0 75 8 53 95 702 4086 1149
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 0 0 0 5 0 0
CDI 0 19 0 0 4 56 12 1
VCDI 0 101 8 53 94 685 4081 1148

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3389 3987 43 162 33 1 0 0
OW 0 126 14 74 42 6 0 0
VODI 0 63 8 105 112 17 0 0
ODI 0 30 1 38 133 49 2 0
CDI 0 26 4 24 103 180 13 0
VCDI 0 28 6 35 125 546 1806 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3389 3967 41 196 63 3 0 0
OW 0 134 13 55 73 11 0 0
VODI 0 70 11 69 97 28 1 0
ODI 0 35 1 54 78 68 3 0
CDI 0 27 2 27 95 165 20 0
VCDI 0 27 8 37 142 524 1797 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5237 3373 21 35 8 0 0 0
OW 0 99 13 87 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 12 116 54 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 106 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 152 122 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 367 1731 28
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5237 3346 25 87 11 0 0 0
OW 0 101 7 55 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 44 12 66 68 7 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 52 76 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 116 99 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 69 373 1725 28

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8963 2682 39 178 255 285 69 0
OW 0 62 8 21 7 9 7 0
VODI 0 7 4 43 26 8 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 43 9 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 118 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8963 2687 40 191 267 297 81 0
OW 0 44 6 17 10 8 28 0
VODI 0 20 3 19 33 37 24 0
ODI 0 0 2 23 16 21 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 56 73 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 797 9 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 8 37 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 8 74 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 30 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 80 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 248 1514 2750 89
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 720 3 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 76 5 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 7 32 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 10 53 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 29 18 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 331 1510 2749 89

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 20 3 17 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 3 155 104 9 2 0
ODI 0 16 3 97 209 66 100 0
CDI 0 3 1 42 74 258 742 48
VCDI 0 0 0 26 33 844 4498 1182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 5 4 0 13 0
OW 0 9 3 20 22 3 110 0
VODI 0 36 3 97 108 155 284 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 84 39 261 0
CDI 0 18 3 101 151 143 466 43
VCDI 0 1 1 67 58 837 4208 1187

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15580 2975 21 33 0 0 0 0
OW 1 96 18 90 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 29 305 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 99 92 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 121 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 86 295 173 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15580 2847 20 57 14 0 0 0
OW 1 155 14 90 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 128 28 199 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 35 9 145 79 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 96 4 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 128 297 172 0


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