Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2021-12-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78748 11841 116 344 224 90 1 0
OW 67 371 50 234 130 22 0 0
VODI 0 124 30 321 248 43 0 0
ODI 0 33 2 157 399 65 0 0
CDI 0 18 6 40 458 289 25 0
VCDI 0 5 8 86 457 2454 7825 3769
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78576 11657 93 364 236 146 0 0
OW 66 540 51 261 107 30 0 0
VODI 0 209 54 321 244 50 0 0
ODI 0 32 12 232 314 103 0 0
CDI 0 17 2 90 466 275 1 0
VCDI 0 11 9 81 610 2325 6890 4625
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76691 13113 124 494 247 188 8 0
OW 69 316 49 328 132 49 19 0
VODI 0 129 27 367 284 52 0 0
ODI 0 13 10 195 434 121 0 0
CDI 0 3 8 55 544 460 20 0
VCDI 0 0 1 36 506 2454 6822 4732
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75263 13825 147 553 258 191 13 0
OW 64 405 57 309 132 42 23 0
VODI 0 179 34 378 345 54 0 0
ODI 0 23 10 185 414 119 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 593 465 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 466 2918 8339 3160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75263 13842 145 549 262 200 23 0
OW 64 374 54 317 137 53 13 0
VODI 0 200 35 361 333 42 0 0
ODI 0 16 14 187 408 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 75 580 477 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 488 2914 8329 3160

Date: 2021-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75504 13420 114 456 298 212 56 0
OW 73 528 51 248 122 25 24 0
VODI 0 233 52 313 272 75 15 0
ODI 0 30 24 275 261 109 7 0
CDI 0 2 2 172 467 316 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 53 807 3158 7369 3950
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75507 13496 117 490 313 217 70 0
OW 70 452 51 223 118 39 16 0
VODI 0 223 47 295 261 60 9 0
ODI 0 42 19 263 269 110 7 0
CDI 0 0 9 171 422 310 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 75 844 3159 7369 3950

Date: 2021-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74951 13907 132 409 296 286 69 0
OW 72 417 64 281 60 15 7 0
VODI 0 114 48 467 222 29 9 0
ODI 0 22 6 225 377 67 20 0
CDI 0 19 3 73 519 394 59 0
VCDI 0 10 3 46 559 2633 8308 3902
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74953 13680 124 507 341 300 81 0
OW 70 507 46 177 109 20 28 0
VODI 0 248 64 294 220 72 25 0
ODI 0 36 16 270 228 102 15 0
CDI 0 16 2 167 388 316 23 0
VCDI 0 2 4 86 747 2614 8300 3902

Date: 2021-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74310 13854 161 501 334 387 67 0
OW 72 400 55 348 88 13 15 0
VODI 0 135 35 373 275 27 18 0
ODI 0 13 9 165 413 56 22 0
CDI 0 2 1 99 480 335 83 0
VCDI 0 0 1 73 478 1940 8562 4900
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74310 13664 152 591 380 391 81 0
OW 72 395 41 217 158 23 23 0
VODI 0 256 49 299 270 73 31 0
ODI 0 86 17 233 278 178 43 0
CDI 0 3 3 158 420 280 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 562 1813 8524 4900

Date: 2021-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74004 13716 158 539 374 380 26 0
OW 72 453 44 315 108 21 20 0
VODI 0 242 28 332 258 43 20 0
ODI 0 44 19 210 343 64 19 0
CDI 0 21 0 141 461 307 52 0
VCDI 0 0 2 49 660 2064 8546 4945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74003 13447 151 631 475 390 48 0
OW 73 439 31 190 149 52 13 0
VODI 0 339 34 252 214 121 37 0
ODI 0 179 21 207 257 173 32 0
CDI 0 66 12 221 379 276 68 0
VCDI 0 6 2 85 730 1867 8485 4945


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