Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78810 15057 178 651 416 90 1 0
OW 67 841 94 579 318 46 0 0
VODI 0 297 50 691 598 105 0 0
ODI 0 125 12 323 815 161 10 0
CDI 0 73 15 109 827 822 81 2
VCDI 0 14 12 144 877 6310 18091 59336
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78635 13509 153 765 447 210 0 0
OW 69 798 84 602 471 295 0 0
VODI 0 310 58 500 609 345 0 0
ODI 0 81 16 268 684 429 12 0
CDI 0 93 10 132 776 917 45 5
VCDI 0 18 11 88 911 6378 16217 62097
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76691 13648 140 701 396 276 8 0
OW 69 769 71 549 438 121 19 0
VODI 0 287 43 530 707 268 14 0
ODI 0 54 17 234 787 541 31 0
CDI 0 38 10 89 711 1576 185 8
VCDI 0 31 8 90 742 6948 26492 52711
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75263 14039 156 600 261 286 39 0
OW 64 709 77 494 258 338 79 0
VODI 0 395 46 510 485 429 39 0
ODI 0 94 19 242 559 502 145 0
CDI 0 36 5 127 689 1039 305 17
VCDI 0 52 10 198 742 6380 23605 57715
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75263 14065 154 633 272 330 72 0
OW 64 660 75 480 227 243 50 0
VODI 0 420 46 469 501 459 34 0
ODI 0 91 22 254 571 482 116 0
CDI 0 39 6 134 660 1145 405 20
VCDI 0 50 10 201 763 6315 23535 57712

Date: 2021-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75504 13641 120 466 301 220 66 0
OW 73 753 58 321 227 207 69 0
VODI 0 508 68 436 438 437 48 0
ODI 0 137 38 409 428 373 133 0
CDI 0 74 9 251 594 816 335 21
VCDI 0 119 14 181 1098 7434 20213 60410
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75507 13779 124 510 317 260 109 0
OW 70 629 60 309 194 171 40 0
VODI 0 480 58 394 439 419 37 0
ODI 0 149 35 395 453 376 95 0
CDI 0 83 17 257 547 854 374 22
VCDI 0 112 13 199 1136 7407 20209 60409

Date: 2021-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74951 14140 144 433 297 286 69 0
OW 72 495 69 355 81 15 7 0
VODI 0 241 66 849 375 38 11 0
ODI 0 73 11 373 641 136 120 0
CDI 0 48 5 118 644 799 814 51
VCDI 0 103 14 137 780 5347 23461 60379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74953 13854 135 549 359 300 94 0
OW 70 569 52 269 148 23 138 0
VODI 0 383 75 528 357 227 309 0
ODI 0 101 25 411 363 159 276 0
CDI 0 64 5 289 594 632 532 45
VCDI 0 129 17 219 997 5280 23133 60385

Date: 2021-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74310 14021 166 559 335 387 67 0
OW 72 448 57 389 121 14 15 0
VODI 0 174 37 617 474 43 18 0
ODI 0 55 11 273 738 141 54 0
CDI 0 39 2 157 660 576 477 1
VCDI 0 157 15 147 709 3761 22075 64676
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74310 13782 157 654 386 392 81 0
OW 72 441 42 261 190 24 36 0
VODI 0 300 52 460 410 162 273 0
ODI 0 136 19 355 489 270 309 5
CDI 0 41 4 242 643 419 521 39
VCDI 0 194 14 170 919 3655 21486 64633

Date: 2021-12-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74004 13837 166 612 380 380 26 0
OW 72 486 44 345 126 21 20 0
VODI 0 289 30 411 383 44 20 0
ODI 0 82 22 347 659 128 19 0
CDI 0 59 1 216 835 462 114 12
VCDI 0 139 18 184 961 3776 17949 69369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74003 13521 156 672 491 390 48 0
OW 73 484 34 228 178 52 14 0
VODI 0 386 34 309 293 164 169 0
ODI 0 236 27 343 501 293 223 0
CDI 0 106 12 327 633 472 401 40
VCDI 0 159 18 236 1248 3440 17293 69341


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