Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-12-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 236 7 42 5 0 0 0
OW 0 25 1 20 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 2 24 26 3 0 0
ODI 0 15 0 19 35 6 0 0
CDI 0 10 6 20 55 36 0 0
VCDI 0 0 4 43 137 586 4002 31495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 204 6 37 9 0 0 0
OW 0 29 1 16 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 2 17 18 3 0 0
ODI 0 18 1 17 20 5 0 0
CDI 0 20 0 16 26 11 0 0
VCDI 0 13 10 65 190 612 4002 31495

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 152 377 2604
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 152 377 2604

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 13 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 144 2409 7372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 60 36 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 122 2386 7370

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 53 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 367 2722 2476
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 62 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 338 2722 2476

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 837 6375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 837 6375

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5325
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5325

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 24 2 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 4 11 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 95 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 212 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 554 2671 2477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 23 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 5 8 15 44 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 11 36 53 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 51 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 88 137 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 80 559 2669 2477

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4129 3854 40 183 40 0 0 0
OW 0 83 17 121 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 8 138 91 14 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 41 166 46 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 138 198 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 305 1617 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4129 3785 44 205 81 0 0 0
OW 0 101 14 118 55 19 0 0
VODI 0 50 5 107 86 38 0 0
ODI 0 16 2 41 98 59 3 0
CDI 0 6 0 14 122 158 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 66 289 1600 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5815 2930 20 51 2 0 0 0
OW 0 47 18 121 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 92 121 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 168 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 105 235 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 819 1050 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5815 2920 19 63 6 0 0 0
OW 0 51 16 105 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 76 108 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 25 115 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 103 180 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 66 856 1047 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8954 3130 43 208 176 142 10 0
OW 0 15 2 28 33 46 13 0
VODI 0 2 1 17 27 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 57 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8954 3115 41 216 207 195 23 0
OW 0 29 4 22 22 26 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 18 37 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 25 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 862 7 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 80 13 27 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 12 66 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 52 41 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 121 13 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 266 1481 2612 64
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 743 6 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 97 1 8 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 78 8 24 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 11 40 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 20 5 57 39 7 3 0
VCDI 0 2 4 36 382 1487 2610 64

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 34 410 21 220 201 0 0 0
OW 4 232 26 274 222 6 0 0
VODI 0 51 9 109 490 183 0 0
ODI 0 41 2 0 357 345 0 0
CDI 0 46 1 3 136 1156 19 0
VCDI 0 27 10 36 23 2141 1752 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 37 518 37 391 436 85 0 0
OW 1 150 17 187 389 266 0 0
VODI 0 50 5 25 337 395 0 0
ODI 0 32 1 3 141 278 10 0
CDI 0 41 2 11 92 739 142 0
VCDI 0 16 7 25 34 2068 1619 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15689 3105 16 55 0 0 0 0
OW 4 259 13 65 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 17 111 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 2 75 159 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 191 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 125 144 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15686 3006 22 80 1 0 0 0
OW 7 275 15 68 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 153 7 94 68 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 4 64 109 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 148 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 151 196 13 0


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