Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-12-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 877 3716 48 244 147 0 0 0
OW 1 404 22 219 222 0 0 0
VODI 0 215 13 190 179 7 0 0
ODI 0 37 8 107 304 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 429 56 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 498 3207 7326 27330
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 721 3339 47 260 78 23 0 0
OW 0 287 20 235 203 178 0 0
VODI 0 206 19 171 201 226 0 0
ODI 0 76 14 114 135 188 0 0
CDI 0 5 1 93 241 318 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 273 2781 5905 29474
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 353 3257 43 222 134 18 0 0
OW 0 347 30 197 120 24 0 0
VODI 0 88 16 187 255 57 0 0
ODI 0 47 9 92 235 245 82 0
CDI 0 1 0 4 194 420 441 1
VCDI 0 0 0 4 189 2202 5458 30894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110 3233 61 218 72 0 0 0
OW 0 511 24 217 82 16 0 0
VODI 0 204 22 258 176 24 1 0
ODI 0 80 10 177 297 41 14 0
CDI 0 30 9 78 296 260 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 173 3347 7414 28342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110 3246 56 222 87 0 0 0
OW 0 484 23 180 71 15 0 0
VODI 0 217 25 267 180 20 1 0
ODI 0 79 13 204 301 42 15 0
CDI 0 32 9 75 264 239 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 193 3372 7406 28342

Date: 2021-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2400 47 248 292 4 0 0
OW 0 338 34 230 300 67 0 0
VODI 0 111 8 198 308 143 0 0
ODI 0 63 9 97 243 153 4 0
CDI 0 62 5 16 220 476 48 16
VCDI 0 2 3 30 185 3088 6845 29573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 2503 47 205 305 28 0 0
OW 0 252 28 282 290 47 0 0
VODI 0 104 13 174 303 132 0 0
ODI 0 59 11 102 229 151 1 0
CDI 0 57 4 26 237 480 42 21
VCDI 0 1 3 30 184 3093 6854 29568

Date: 2021-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 34 689 28 260 201 0 0 0
OW 4 380 26 313 224 6 0 0
VODI 0 99 10 133 507 185 0 0
ODI 0 50 4 4 398 373 0 0
CDI 0 46 1 3 186 1252 33 6
VCDI 0 27 10 36 152 3501 9460 27225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 37 786 44 437 436 85 0 0
OW 1 313 17 217 392 266 0 0
VODI 0 95 6 52 368 408 0 0
ODI 0 40 3 7 171 315 10 0
CDI 0 41 2 11 125 866 181 8
VCDI 0 16 7 25 176 3377 9302 27223

Date: 2021-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 131 9 79 65 167 0 0
OW 0 376 24 164 165 319 0 0
VODI 0 124 8 152 157 395 18 0
ODI 0 62 5 33 104 533 75 0
CDI 0 36 8 45 62 644 177 1
VCDI 0 57 2 34 117 3182 13068 25268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 117 14 138 154 416 17 0
OW 0 385 21 168 167 481 83 0
VODI 0 179 8 118 124 655 131 0
ODI 0 38 6 22 61 298 206 0
CDI 0 33 3 20 51 285 209 28
VCDI 0 34 4 41 113 3105 12692 25241

Date: 2021-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 49 4 25 2 6 27 0
OW 0 253 15 98 88 283 59 0
VODI 0 225 13 127 95 367 39 0
ODI 0 82 12 85 113 362 131 0
CDI 0 34 4 70 102 362 307 0
VCDI 0 31 7 63 56 2431 9797 30042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 76 10 42 26 219 78 0
OW 0 175 7 74 114 415 134 0
VODI 0 295 22 179 90 514 281 0
ODI 0 74 5 75 126 291 268 0
CDI 0 32 4 53 50 248 268 4
VCDI 0 22 7 45 50 2124 9331 30038


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