Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2021-12-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 229 5 32 7 0 0 0
OW 0 23 3 14 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 8 18 23 1 0 0
ODI 0 11 3 11 29 3 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 27 57 10 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 194 492 5243 30395
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 194 4 26 7 0 0 0
OW 0 33 3 18 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 4 14 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 3 8 25 1 0 0
CDI 0 16 5 13 36 4 1 0
VCDI 0 6 3 46 229 501 5243 30395

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 97 602 2434
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 97 602 2434

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 553 9427
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 553 9427

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 301 2568 2785
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 301 2568 2785

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 477 6754
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 477 6754

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 596 4679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 596 4702

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 191 8 77 3 0 0 0
OW 0 102 11 86 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 6 102 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 27 126 15 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 13 147 68 13 17
VCDI 0 0 0 26 280 1127 2354 1371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 170 12 110 42 0 0 0
OW 0 87 3 32 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 6 58 35 4 0 0
ODI 0 16 3 54 56 32 0 0
CDI 0 17 1 38 111 53 10 2
VCDI 0 7 1 39 375 1121 2357 1386

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4677 3459 54 155 51 0 0 0
OW 0 57 19 114 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 1 77 132 5 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 18 142 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 56 235 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 27 403 1520 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4677 3473 66 222 64 0 0 0
OW 0 31 7 91 71 4 0 0
VODI 0 18 1 34 134 21 0 0
ODI 0 11 0 10 104 72 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 11 41 164 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 43 427 1525 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6015 2916 12 36 4 0 0 0
OW 0 99 19 103 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 116 106 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 30 140 35 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 119 377 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 245 1104 5
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6015 2938 17 53 13 0 0 0
OW 0 68 10 76 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 5 90 61 7 0 0
ODI 0 11 4 47 80 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 147 129 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 88 501 1214 5

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10462 1985 29 89 121 88 26 0
OW 0 62 3 10 5 1 0 0
VODI 0 9 5 24 16 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 25 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10462 2032 32 92 125 89 26 0
OW 0 17 4 15 4 1 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 15 34 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 896 20 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 9 93 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 78 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 80 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 139 20 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 295 1164 2330 550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 814 6 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 11 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 12 102 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 60 55 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 104 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 388 1172 2330 550

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 651 2815 28 151 73 8 0 0
OW 0 255 32 211 88 12 0 0
VODI 0 74 11 279 171 42 0 0
ODI 0 26 7 83 383 254 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 156 585 275 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 75 1045 774 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 651 2683 40 278 246 47 0 0
OW 0 158 8 111 169 130 3 0
VODI 0 225 13 124 103 260 93 0
ODI 0 97 14 132 123 163 60 0
CDI 0 7 3 84 177 228 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 128 1118 744 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15883 3302 12 40 0 0 0 0
OW 3 157 11 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 19 175 115 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 7 119 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 72 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 51 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15881 3258 14 54 3 0 0 0
OW 5 183 12 92 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 16 133 138 9 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 1 61 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 49 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 41 0 0


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