Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-12-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3467 3623 29 136 4 0 0 0
OW 29 213 17 76 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 93 9 187 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 5 118 151 27 0 0
CDI 0 8 2 37 219 90 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 817 3834 6248 26289
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2100 4317 57 201 20 0 0 0
OW 0 131 19 215 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 1 120 252 31 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 36 253 62 0 0
CDI 0 15 6 32 474 180 16 11
VCDI 0 0 0 77 1106 3318 7547 25121
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 945 4324 69 447 219 0 0 0
OW 0 224 9 159 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 6 77 295 12 1 0
ODI 0 1 1 25 305 239 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 307 495 71 4
VCDI 0 0 0 42 904 4050 7406 25029
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1165 3482 60 241 283 50 0 0
OW 2 297 18 198 221 43 0 0
VODI 0 155 14 109 203 70 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 49 228 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 263 341 5 4
VCDI 0 0 0 17 416 3825 7527 26470
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1163 3519 67 293 291 11 0 0
OW 4 247 10 160 258 73 0 0
VODI 0 170 15 115 185 82 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 33 221 108 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 232 306 14 3
VCDI 0 0 0 8 427 3839 7518 26471

Date: 2021-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 798 3521 45 219 79 26 0 0
OW 0 388 21 183 201 134 0 0
VODI 0 254 18 173 210 92 0 0
ODI 0 57 12 105 265 82 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 74 357 175 3 1
VCDI 0 0 0 25 433 3230 6761 27920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 798 3612 50 262 122 12 0 0
OW 0 302 16 137 163 88 0 0
VODI 0 252 16 178 208 153 0 0
ODI 0 55 15 117 281 86 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 64 311 174 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 460 3226 6760 27921

Date: 2021-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 651 3343 29 156 73 8 0 0
OW 0 307 36 225 88 12 0 0
VODI 0 91 18 307 173 42 0 0
ODI 0 29 7 85 395 254 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 181 592 275 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 262 1988 6172 30044
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 651 3192 41 279 246 47 0 0
OW 0 220 14 130 169 130 3 0
VODI 0 252 18 152 105 260 93 0
ODI 0 99 14 133 139 163 60 0
CDI 0 7 3 84 190 231 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 323 2065 6142 30044

Date: 2021-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 322 3097 42 138 168 25 0 0
OW 0 463 28 166 80 54 0 0
VODI 0 140 18 265 109 85 5 0
ODI 0 61 9 173 277 98 10 0
CDI 0 13 6 38 193 473 240 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 107 2460 5552 30950
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 322 3034 46 205 219 67 0 0
OW 0 330 15 147 176 105 7 0
VODI 0 243 18 171 93 212 224 0
ODI 0 98 11 121 96 128 137 0
CDI 0 67 13 132 147 173 187 0
VCDI 0 2 0 5 203 2510 5252 30950

Date: 2021-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62 2933 49 259 183 0 0 0
OW 0 402 36 269 165 24 0 0
VODI 0 160 15 208 273 58 0 0
ODI 0 88 9 130 253 77 10 0
CDI 0 55 9 49 233 410 52 0
VCDI 0 9 4 50 297 3270 6469 29296
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62 2749 56 268 225 14 0 0
OW 0 419 22 220 228 55 0 0
VODI 0 252 18 222 280 202 0 0
ODI 0 86 10 124 158 347 47 0
CDI 0 66 12 79 194 213 114 0
VCDI 0 75 4 52 319 3008 6370 29296


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