Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-12-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83842 15287 140 631 439 285 1 0 OW 89 619 68 420 175 28 0 0 VODI 0 282 47 497 367 64 0 0 ODI 0 103 22 312 501 158 9 0 CDI 0 19 9 184 727 496 37 14 VCDI 0 3 2 37 1445 6908 17869 54912	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 82207 16104 168 658 444 192 0 0 OW 58 684 67 500 229 17 0 0 VODI 1 340 31 415 524 93 0 0 ODI 0 100 22 269 626 134 1 0 CDI 0 60 23 182 1063 465 30 56 VCDI 0 2 4 164 1883 7145 19346 52741	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80911 16597 197 1031 494 206 13 0 OW 54 577 53 512 308 6 0 0 VODI 0 226 35 392 695 58 1 0 ODI 0 61 12 183 696 352 2 0 CDI 0 26 8 129 794 1036 85 25 VCDI 0 3 2 107 1587 7983 19227 52364	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80352 16037 211 850 631 223 14 0 OW 54 662 67 505 434 60 0 0 VODI 0 306 44 433 573 147 0 0 ODI 0 68 13 232 629 303 0 0 CDI 0 40 13 131 791 831 24 17 VCDI 0 6 4 99 1095 7674 19700 53775	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80350 16105 222 930 672 185 14 0 OW 56 578 56 458 452 89 0 0 VODI 0 326 45 411 541 160 0 0 ODI 0 74 13 216 648 310 0 0 CDI 0 28 11 143 740 783 43 7 VCDI 0 8 5 92 1100 7711 19681 53785

Date: 2021-12-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79671 15826 185 787 429 172 13 0 OW 58 877 80 570 492 159 0 0 VODI 0 386 50 547 569 183 0 0 ODI 0 99 18 310 644 268 2 0 CDI 0 39 5 236 809 649 118 8 VCDI 0 26 10 152 1316 5769 19772 55744	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79673 15950 196 882 507 161 13 0 OW 56 751 69 508 406 111 0 0 VODI 0 389 47 515 594 229 0 0 ODI 0 102 22 314 670 264 1 0 CDI 0 41 5 229 748 652 104 8 VCDI 0 20 9 154 1334 5783 19787 55744

Date: 2021-12-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79485 15800 168 614 259 96 26 0 OW 59 771 107 689 191 13 0 0 VODI 0 238 55 869 702 56 0 0 ODI 0 52 12 205 1044 379 3 0 CDI 0 7 3 72 731 1367 412 41 VCDI 0 0 0 64 968 4969 18121 58400	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 79481 15569 191 844 500 136 26 0 OW 63 652 58 468 362 135 3 0 VODI 0 434 58 570 543 320 93 0 ODI 0 157 24 320 509 327 60 0 CDI 0 43 10 193 655 639 171 3 VCDI 0 13 4 118 1326 5323 18209 58438

Date: 2021-12-15:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 78567 15882 194 640 409 132 17 0 OW 62 766 79 612 229 74 0 0 VODI 0 250 36 688 578 167 5 0 ODI 0 94 14 289 880 255 12 0 CDI 0 31 10 77 735 1089 322 15 VCDI 0 8 4 70 808 5740 19006 58202	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 78564 15652 196 758 522 185 17 0 OW 65 692 56 466 374 151 7 0 VODI 0 409 45 546 502 369 224 0 ODI 0 144 15 314 545 359 137 0 CDI 0 100 16 204 636 631 250 18 VCDI 0 34 9 88 1060 5762 18727 58199

Date: 2021-12-17:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 78810 15057 178 651 416 90 1 0 OW 67 841 94 579 318 46 0 0 VODI 0 297 50 691 598 105 0 0 ODI 0 125 12 323 815 161 10 0 CDI 0 73 15 109 827 822 81 2 VCDI 0 14 12 144 877 6310 18091 59336	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 78804 14624 181 748 561 125 1 0 OW 73 912 63 536 426 96 0 0 VODI 0 509 55 477 660 286 0 0 ODI 0 141 31 366 550 527 50 13 CDI 0 92 15 222 704 669 193 65 VCDI 0 129 16 148 950 5831 17939 59260

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