Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2021-12-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5607 2238 11 17 0 0 7 8
OW 25 319 5 42 1 0 1 6
VODI 25 266 11 106 38 10 0 10
ODI 7 34 10 106 134 37 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 57 272 65 4 7
VCDI 0 0 0 9 385 2578 5807 27600
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5080 2610 8 24 0 1 0 0
OW 36 265 4 31 0 22 2 0
VODI 20 246 15 123 16 1 4 0
ODI 8 96 11 76 53 20 2 0
CDI 3 0 1 64 222 105 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 463 1942 7560 26730
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4575 3144 8 64 0 0 0 0
OW 20 168 11 105 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 3 110 123 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 69 122 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 212 102 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 351 2080 8436 26029
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4093 3305 15 51 3 0 0 0
OW 24 243 7 91 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 135 9 120 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 5 74 138 0 0 0
CDI 0 3 5 17 208 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 577 2031 5929 28607
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4094 3311 15 62 6 0 0 0
OW 23 224 4 54 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 144 10 106 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 8 106 82 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 4 25 241 32 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 637 2050 5929 28607

Date: 2021-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3028 3795 37 153 12 0 0 0
OW 21 209 16 82 75 0 0 0
VODI 2 77 12 177 95 15 0 0
ODI 0 13 7 112 189 44 0 0
CDI 0 12 2 64 400 145 10 7
VCDI 0 0 0 47 842 4315 6092 25759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3040 3802 37 149 20 0 0 0
OW 10 189 13 78 79 0 0 0
VODI 1 84 14 127 88 27 0 0
ODI 0 21 9 138 126 44 0 0
CDI 0 10 1 91 369 131 4 4
VCDI 0 0 0 52 931 4317 6098 25762

Date: 2021-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1680 4181 58 343 68 0 0 0
OW 1 82 13 203 113 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 1 68 380 20 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 29 557 56 0 0
CDI 0 7 1 18 622 280 38 3
VCDI 0 0 0 75 966 3131 8216 24628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1679 4035 61 454 134 0 0 0
OW 2 182 10 129 193 24 0 0
VODI 0 47 0 29 322 86 0 0
ODI 0 23 3 18 277 111 1 0
CDI 0 9 1 26 425 187 42 3
VCDI 0 0 0 80 1355 3079 8211 24628

Date: 2021-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 877 3938 64 404 295 7 0 0
OW 0 353 15 145 195 24 0 0
VODI 0 65 11 78 231 66 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 203 145 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 171 508 46 6
VCDI 0 0 0 24 600 4022 7256 26054
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 877 3856 59 414 257 27 0 0
OW 0 289 18 143 308 46 0 0
VODI 0 182 8 75 232 105 0 0
ODI 0 29 5 9 166 172 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 114 333 105 12
VCDI 0 0 0 38 618 4089 7172 26048

Date: 2021-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 877 3716 48 244 147 0 0 0
OW 1 404 22 219 222 0 0 0
VODI 0 215 13 190 179 7 0 0
ODI 0 37 8 107 304 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 429 56 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 498 3207 7326 27330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 875 3586 56 328 181 2 0 0
OW 1 398 13 167 247 10 0 0
VODI 2 313 12 220 218 9 0 0
ODI 0 54 5 67 375 13 0 0
CDI 0 21 5 18 268 40 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 490 3209 7325 27330


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