Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-12-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-26:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 87450 13875 160 672 500 93 8 8 OW 75 658 39 342 305 50 1 6 VODI 25 424 31 388 468 191 5 10 ODI 7 70 21 285 505 306 25 1 CDI 0 2 3 138 626 604 65 16 VCDI 0 0 0 31 853 5872 19968 51866	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-28:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86353 14394 129 646 448 99 3 0 OW 86 630 33 269 299 104 4 0 VODI 20 423 33 341 448 155 29 0 ODI 8 142 28 248 393 225 56 0 CDI 3 11 6 182 623 429 200 5 VCDI 0 0 0 40 987 4861 20661 52994	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-30:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 86232 14431 127 648 424 97 1 0 OW 72 462 65 459 215 11 0 0 VODI 0 198 25 392 587 47 0 0 ODI 0 30 13 176 575 159 3 0 CDI 0 6 4 77 675 580 27 2 VCDI 0 0 1 22 725 5095 21918 52467	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-12-02:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85697 13918 139 600 450 209 4 0 OW 76 606 42 429 184 33 0 0 VODI 0 300 37 406 440 69 4 0 ODI 0 83 24 234 561 140 10 0 CDI 0 9 10 136 695 451 42 8 VCDI 0 0 0 43 1085 4931 17914 57029	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 85694 13888 144 652 467 209 3 0 OW 79 622 37 349 187 26 1 0 VODI 0 302 37 396 399 74 3 0 ODI 0 91 26 269 478 136 12 0 CDI 0 13 8 143 729 390 41 11 VCDI 0 0 0 39 1155 4998 17914 57026

Date: 2021-12-04:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83258 15467 151 604 376 323 8 0 OW 74 745 66 404 222 6 2 0 VODI 2 314 36 518 367 63 2 0 ODI 0 84 27 321 557 157 1 0 CDI 0 21 9 225 890 560 57 22 VCDI 0 0 0 81 1439 7628 19378 52583	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 83265 15450 157 651 427 321 8 0 OW 67 731 56 335 216 10 1 0 VODI 2 335 38 466 325 76 2 0 ODI 0 86 27 355 475 152 3 0 CDI 0 29 11 255 850 517 60 15 VCDI 0 0 0 91 1558 7661 19374 52590

Date: 2021-12-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 81873 16359 175 796 391 244 0 0 OW 54 509 60 554 263 7 0 0 VODI 0 171 40 370 753 50 0 0 ODI 0 49 16 183 1001 158 0 0 CDI 0 14 10 129 1205 693 44 15 VCDI 0 0 0 133 1607 7081 19504 52537	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 81813 15683 164 870 498 246 0 0 OW 109 691 40 359 327 39 0 0 VODI 5 477 37 301 577 147 0 0 ODI 0 164 34 205 630 214 6 0 CDI 0 73 21 225 967 523 88 34 VCDI 0 14 5 205 2221 7064 19454 52518

Date: 2021-12-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80518 16264 195 1056 546 185 40 0 OW 54 702 67 491 368 31 0 0 VODI 0 257 42 420 667 97 0 0 ODI 0 72 9 259 643 252 1 0 CDI 0 25 6 164 669 1008 69 35 VCDI 0 9 7 135 1452 8260 16914 55059	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80480 15517 181 983 536 206 40 0 OW 84 873 48 393 408 62 0 0 VODI 8 607 37 402 513 154 1 0 ODI 0 203 35 285 596 249 34 0 CDI 0 89 15 247 714 757 152 13 VCDI 0 40 10 215 1578 8405 16797 55081

Date: 2021-12-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80214 15872 192 811 457 157 61 0 OW 55 835 73 592 455 12 0 0 VODI 0 363 47 542 535 65 0 0 ODI 0 88 19 344 698 161 0 0 CDI 0 43 8 223 903 556 65 0 VCDI 0 20 8 117 1277 6404 21089 53687	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 80210 15155 184 846 521 164 61 0 OW 57 973 49 407 393 37 0 0 VODI 2 762 50 551 511 78 0 0 ODI 0 207 26 334 743 161 16 0 CDI 0 89 26 251 728 688 186 3 VCDI 0 35 12 240 1429 6227 20952 53684

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