Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2021-11-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90107 14453 135 602 330 298 1 0
OW 58 594 49 341 347 470 8 0
VODI 1 344 42 335 607 730 7 0
ODI 0 158 20 270 418 722 86 0
CDI 0 57 12 134 481 877 296 8
VCDI 0 18 7 109 628 4755 16633 51500
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90443 13206 108 509 343 163 48 0
OW 57 680 50 388 248 275 117 0
VODI 0 325 43 490 490 606 72 0
ODI 0 122 18 305 418 586 60 0
CDI 0 23 13 241 632 870 219 25
VCDI 0 0 0 105 869 4209 15098 54574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87943 15302 137 536 204 76 0 19
OW 65 601 47 386 206 12 0 4
VODI 12 295 37 541 555 58 0 10
ODI 0 86 13 371 583 183 11 0
CDI 0 56 2 220 747 770 296 13
VCDI 0 46 7 92 799 5354 16042 54311
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88058 13909 147 656 358 61 0 17
OW 73 712 44 334 268 25 0 6
VODI 21 392 34 433 541 101 2 6
ODI 3 75 19 272 577 213 6 4
CDI 0 2 3 134 658 478 101 1
VCDI 0 0 0 50 914 6647 17522 53171
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88053 13951 151 699 382 60 0 20
OW 77 608 35 283 306 28 0 3
VODI 22 430 41 442 518 103 0 7
ODI 3 85 14 258 529 214 9 3
CDI 0 16 6 143 643 519 113 1
VCDI 0 0 0 54 938 6601 17509 53171

Date: 2021-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87351 13670 131 659 472 73 8 0
OW 83 627 32 353 323 59 8 0
VODI 21 418 34 381 490 184 11 0
ODI 12 90 21 250 472 262 35 0
CDI 0 8 6 127 675 587 154 37
VCDI 0 0 0 18 822 4952 19752 53380
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87347 13707 131 668 522 82 13 0
OW 88 576 38 319 289 56 3 0
VODI 20 359 28 401 449 202 11 0
ODI 12 153 18 227 483 255 40 0
CDI 0 18 9 143 647 558 152 37
VCDI 0 0 0 30 864 4964 19749 53380

Date: 2021-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85972 15115 120 574 427 65 7 0
OW 58 517 67 512 175 15 1 0
VODI 0 150 41 471 511 49 1 0
ODI 0 15 10 216 639 185 3 0
CDI 0 0 1 65 652 625 108 2
VCDI 0 0 0 15 906 5288 20970 52500
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85968 14460 112 666 564 94 14 0
OW 62 695 40 231 215 70 8 0
VODI 0 439 33 306 341 124 19 0
ODI 0 127 31 259 330 190 44 0
CDI 0 72 17 254 442 407 78 8
VCDI 0 4 6 137 1418 5342 20927 52494

Date: 2021-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85819 14383 122 570 404 195 15 0
OW 77 542 44 428 189 22 1 0
VODI 0 253 31 424 511 65 2 0
ODI 0 54 25 203 536 145 5 0
CDI 0 2 5 118 708 548 21 1
VCDI 0 0 0 30 894 4510 17878 57268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85824 14011 119 580 549 214 16 0
OW 72 679 35 272 219 51 1 4
VODI 0 363 25 326 402 153 7 17
ODI 0 126 16 243 275 224 14 7
CDI 0 51 26 192 398 368 63 20
VCDI 0 4 6 160 1399 4475 17821 57221

Date: 2021-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83842 15287 140 631 439 285 1 0
OW 89 619 68 420 175 28 0 0
VODI 0 282 47 497 367 64 0 0
ODI 0 103 22 312 501 158 9 0
CDI 0 19 9 184 727 496 37 14
VCDI 0 3 2 37 1445 6908 17869 54912
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83848 15014 144 663 451 285 1 0
OW 80 618 49 345 276 59 0 0
VODI 3 417 44 392 344 174 1 12
ODI 0 152 22 220 353 212 12 12
CDI 0 72 16 232 396 365 55 96
VCDI 0 40 13 229 1834 6844 17847 54806


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